Is it a seasonality trade ?
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
If it's going to move back up some, looks like it should be soon based on the seasonality...maybe lol
I'm surprised how much corn is down today, 9-10 cents. It's been rallying and a breather is not unusual, but that's a bigger move than a breather. I wonder if it's a temporary trend change.
Your post made me realize I had been filled on a corn spread I wanted during the overnight session.
Short Mar / Long Jul16 Corn @ -7.5.
midwest getting dry
speaking 'bout wheat, kcbt-cbot spread may be promising, but should wait 'till precipitation return to normal
For those of you looking at global conditions, El Niño is really starting to bite here in South-East Asia. Bangkok tap water is now brackish and people are drinking bottled water due to inadequate discharge from dams. Irrigation for rice has been curtailed and farmers have been told not to plant.
Impact expected in regional Oil Palm plantings too, Malaysia and Indonesia, and will affect edible oils markets at some point. As for monsoon shortfalls in India, that would lead to greater reliance on imports.
Have not seen anything much about impact in South America and Australia, though I suppose it's inevitable.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/623304/el-nino-starting-to-bite-in-asia
Impact expected in regional Oil Palm plantings too, Malaysia and Indonesia, and will affect edible oils markets at some point. As for monsoon shortfalls in India, that would lead to greater reliance on imports.
Have not seen anything much about impact in South America and Australia, though I suppose it's inevitable.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/623304/el-nino-starting-to-bite-in-asia
If only CPO futures on CME had any volume... personally I'm not going out of my way to gain access to Bursa Malaysia... aside from that, any expected impact to Soybean Oil prices?
Would need to look at some long term charts to see how soybean prices move when there is a CPO price spike. I must confess I haven't paid attention before. Another possibility is to look at ETFs with Palm Oil exposure, though if price rises for producers are proportional to production declines then no benefit there, as the ETFs I have seen tend to hold shares in producers rather than product.
A simultaneous squeeze in South American soybeans and Oil Palm production in SEA would be interesting.
