Ag trade ideas

FCXoptions said:
Checked it out on Scarr once I got in this morning, just got in as well @ 2 even
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I had 2 limit orders sitting out there, one just got hit and closed out half @ 4. The other I have set higher. I was planning on moving the first order higher, but I fell asleep on my laptop last night and never finished looking back into the historical moves to see about a better target. I am going to hold the other half for more though.

I really hope one day to be doing enough volume where commission on a fly doesn't total a half pt per spread.

Thanks for the trade idea Tradator!
 
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Rachmaninov said:
Dont take your holiday in July, thats the bullish month !
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I can't remember a really good july in terms of P§L in the last 5 years. June has a habit of being really good for me but not this year. February was my largest month to date.
 
@TraDaToR if you don't mind me asking, how did you come across the fly trade? Did you just see it while looking at the term structure chart or do you track the pricing on the fly's themselves?

I am debating on building something in excel for various spreads and calculating the carry, but for now I might just create a tab in TWS with several fly's. That is what I have done for crude to track them and see how they are moving a ways out the curve.
 
It is highly unusual for this fly to go to zero( almost ). Dec/Mar usually have a larger carry than Mar/May as it corresponds to 3 months of stockage but also because May is kind of "intercrop". So whenever the fly is near 0 you can short...
 
I'm looking at entering the feeder cattle Nov/Jan spread. Looks like a H&S that is breaking out now.
 

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I just haven't looked at either to be honest, I will check them out tonight. Thanks for the suggestion. I liked seeing the H&S was a big reason
 
could someone recommend some source of fundamental data/analysis about spreads? maybe some topics or blogs or articles or anything...
 
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