Haha I'm right there with you. still a profit though!
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
soybeans N-X can go below 10 ,for USDA planting area report by end of June can hit it real hard, US farmers seem to plant more beans than USDA previous est.
Could someone plz look at my thoughts and tell me if i wrong or right.
soybeans N-X.
The reason of falling from the mid of may to the mid of june is because of planting the new crop.
So they put some risk premium during the planting in the price of november beans relatively to the price of july beans, untill beans emerge and can withstand some bad weather. And this premium is increasing during the planting because uncertainty is also increasing (we dont know how many sprouts will emerge and survive) .
Also some bad weather news is bearish for the spread, because of higher influence on 2d leg.
Hope you understand my engish
Soymeal is a strange market for me. However its kind of classic to have distinct moves when expiries belong to two different harvests ?
I would prefer to trade that soymeal will return in backwardation, something like short dec/long oct
Yes but here October is kind of intercrop , just like Sep on Corn. Sometimes it is lower than December and represent the new supply but sometimes not. Here we have Oct/Dec in carry as if oct was new crop but surprise the next two months are backwards??? Long Oct/Short Dec was my initial position. I have been riding it for 1 or 2 months( and it went within 1 tick of my target...GRRR), I just added the short Dec/Long Jan recently after the WASDE.
Out half of it @ 5. The rest soon in stratosphere hopefully.
I'm still in this one, I really debated on getting out when I saw it at 5.3/5.4 this morning but missed that opportunity. Playing it by ear for now.
I actually might have an opportunity to get about 25-50 bred heifers soon depending on how the numbers crunch out. There are some beginning rancher/farmer loans the gov offers at very low rates for about a 7 yr term I believe that I am talking with our local office about. Waiting to hear back on all the details tomorrow. My parents have the land, so I would essentially just lease the land from them then put the heifers out there.
Using relatively generous estimates I am showing the debt would be paid off and it could turn a profit year 4. That's no growth, just simply selling all the steers at 500lbs and keeping the heifers to sell around 2yrs old as bred. The goal would be to pay the loan off quickly, but depending on the composition of what's born, I would more than likely end up keeping some of the heifers to grow the herd as I have enough space to maintain about 50 cows.
Do you all have any thoughts you care to share on the direction of long term beef prices?
The loan structure will kind of determine if I move forward with it though. I don't want a larger loan to screw me over for trying to get a new house if we need to sell the current one for my job or something, so that will be my main hold-up.
I'm trying to diversify my income streams early on in life (just turned 23) so I can have several things going and start building some wealth.
Hah, are we talking like an oil storage type trade here? Actually trading in the physical underlying sounds pretty hard core. Do those loans take into account feed and care in addition to purchase?