Ag trade ideas

Vyki said:
Also there is a good buying opportunity in minneapolis wheat, but my broker doesn't give an opportunity to trade it :(
There is a good seasonality, we are near support and we are near all time lows
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I entered it a little early as usual, see a few pages earlier... The full carry is around 16-17 but historically it rarelly reaches 13.
 
I am currently applying to RJO Brian to trade MWE, Canola and all the markets not in IB.
Its so painful to apply to other brokers than IB. So much time spent, I hope I ll trade soon these markets ;)
 
I am in front of a dilemma. There is a long Oct/ Short Dec Hogs seasonal trade which can be taken around now until October. It's reliable in terms of historical results but this spread is already quite rich, almost at historical levels except for last year which was a complete outlier in terms of significance. Do you guys have insight on this one ? Fundamentals...
 
TraDaToR said:
Long Jul KC / Short Jul Chi Wheat @ 25.75 based on the crop scout report. Average yield estimates just slightly over last year disaster when this same spread was at 110...This last downward movement on KW based on "rain relief " smelled so much like BS...
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Out @ 30. :). The crop condition improvement and this big engulfing candlestick made me change my mind. I initially wanted to ride it much further...
 
Could someone plz look at my thoughts and tell me if i wrong or right.
soybeans N-X.
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The reason of falling from the mid of may to the mid of june is because of planting the new crop.
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So they put some risk premium during the planting in the price of november beans relatively to the price of july beans, untill beans emerge and can withstand some bad weather. And this premium is increasing during the planting because uncertainty is also increasing (we dont know how many sprouts will emerge and survive) .
Also some bad weather news is bearish for the spread, because of higher influence on 2d leg.

Hope you understand my engish:)
 
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