Ag trade ideas

Seriously...Check out HRW and SRW...For one month everything i am reading is about drought in southern states and HRW condition... SRW has always been in good shape ...Give them a little bear move and guess what...HRW drops to hell and SRW stays above previous lows...So much for Fundamentals.:confused:
 
TraDaToR said:
Averaged it down a bit. Now my entrypoint is @ 0.07.
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Out @ -0.1 on that May/Jun Milk spread.:)

It worked but I should work my entries a little more. I was stepping in front of a train here, I was really too early...
 
It dépends on the trade. Most of the time I have something like a 1/1 risk/reward. I try to make between 10 and 30 ticks and I exit when I have lost the same...As I said I am usually too early so I can't have a stop too close:)
 
TraDaToR said:
...So much for Fundamentals.:confused:
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Alot of grain floor traders have gotten blown out using traditional fundamentals in terms of carry the past few years. Look at where Silver is trading. Look at the Cotton markets a couple years ago... the carry for decades was about $3.60 until Louis Dreyfus decided to take delivery of the futures at an obscene premium to the cash markets. Many proud, longstanding Memphis firms several decades old were taken out by that.

I personally have seen so many cash basis Treasury traders get blown out by Bank squeezes. Close friends.

My take is that fundamentals do not trump price. I believe in fundamentals but I will not fade price.
 
TraDaToR said:
Seriously...Check out HRW and SRW...For one month everything i am reading is about drought in southern states and HRW condition... SRW has always been in good shape ...Give them a little bear move and guess what...HRW drops to hell and SRW stays above previous lows...So much for Fundamentals.:confused:
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HRW-SRW spread is down because HRW got some rain. The move was quite huge with -0.40 $/b on the spread. Could be a good buying point. However, I feel that no US farmers is ready to sell, US got into marginal supplyer mode, "if wheat cheap, I will build a huge stockpile and let others sell to this 5 $/b".
 
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