Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
FWIW I find the curve of cotton really odd right now. I don't know why low inventories would invert 2015 Crop( Dec15 to Jul16 ). As a result I went long +Jul/-2Dec15/+Jul16 @ -1.32( the 10 lots @ 0.50 on Dec/Jul16 was me ). I know it is not liquid but worth noting.
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Out @ +0.07.:)
 
thefuturestrader said:
Wheat is confusing to me right now. I look at that chart and can't tell much of anything. We've come off a lot from those Russia/Ukraine rallies, and it would make sense that we are getting some kind of a bottom. There is a ton of wheat out there, and the weather seems like it was pretty good with not a lot of winter kill from what I am hearing.
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US Wheat is currently so expensive compared to other origins, thats clearly a big bearish factor !
However, I feel that the market is relaxed concerning Ukraine/Russia markets !
 
Rachmaninov said:
It seems a bad idea to me, OCT14/OCT14 went up near the expiry and didnt stop !
I feel that most of the time convergence is not working weel in nearby expiries
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Indeed... I did a little statistical study and you are right. I traded just because the change in ratio was so abrupt but there have been similar occurrences in the past. I still think I have a little edge but perhaps I will exit soon...In any case before April...
 
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That's how I know I have a good trade with your LE Apr/Jun. Even when outrights go down, it breakevens or goes up...Same thing with ZM Jul/Aug...:)
 
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