Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Side note: Contango made a decent move again today on crude by the way back in other direction, just wanted to throw it out there if you all have any interest in the flys. July/Aug/Sept or Aug/Sept/Oct both seem pretty far out of whack again.
I am going to keep following this feeder/live cattle spread will post the next call and see how it does
I am going to keep following this feeder/live cattle spread will post the next call and see how it does
How's it going today for everyone? USDA March WASDE report out tomorrow. Repositioning today before the report?
Prospective plantings at the end of the month should be more interesting. I don't know if there will be much action tomorrow...
Have you seen cash cattle around 163$? Do you know what it means exactly when they say x "in the South" and y "in the north" ? I don't know much about cash markets.
Have you seen cash cattle around 163$? Do you know what it means exactly when they say x "in the South" and y "in the north" ? I don't know much about cash markets.
Any stop on this?Oh well...I am not sure it won't work in the end. I will give it some room.
Yeah, I saw that LEJ-LEM spread come back this morning. That range is pretty strong. It may take the futures chasing the cash to pop out of that range.
TraD: I'm not an expert, but I can tell you what I know. Cash trade is pretty localized from the feedlots to the packers/slaughterers. Thus, you can get different cattle trade prices in Texas vs. Nebraska, i.e. south vs. north. Although offers are being made early on in the week, trade doesn't usually happen until Thursday or Friday. It sounds like feedlots are starting the week at $163, after a strong futures performance last week. That number will likely adjust based upon the futures price as the week goes on. Sometimes it seems like the cash leads the futures, other times the futures lead the cash. Watch and see how it develops as the week goes on.
TraD: I'm not an expert, but I can tell you what I know. Cash trade is pretty localized from the feedlots to the packers/slaughterers. Thus, you can get different cattle trade prices in Texas vs. Nebraska, i.e. south vs. north. Although offers are being made early on in the week, trade doesn't usually happen until Thursday or Friday. It sounds like feedlots are starting the week at $163, after a strong futures performance last week. That number will likely adjust based upon the futures price as the week goes on. Sometimes it seems like the cash leads the futures, other times the futures lead the cash. Watch and see how it develops as the week goes on.
I don't know the reason behind that really Tradator, but I do have a couple friends here in TN essentially doing arbitrage on that lol but there is still risk. They either buy a large trailer load here in TN and drive to New York and sell them or the opposite. They wait until there is a decent difference in prices of course and so far have been pretty successful.
My friend told me it is because there are significantly fewer sale barns in the north, but I am not sure on that exactly. In the south we are more impacted by dry weather also I would say. Hot dry summer usually means lower prices around here because so many people start selling.
My friend told me it is because there are significantly fewer sale barns in the north, but I am not sure on that exactly. In the south we are more impacted by dry weather also I would say. Hot dry summer usually means lower prices around here because so many people start selling.