Ag trade ideas

Greenie said:
I am thinking soy/wheat or soy/soy oil. What do you think?

For sugar and cotton, those guys trading that in my office are mainly on the physical side, so based on their information they are getting , they are starting to feel bullish. I do agree with you though, it seems premature to go long in cotton/sugar.
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Marex just announced they were entering the sugar physical business :http://www.agrimoney.com/news/marex...ly-as-it-launches-physical-trading--7831.html

Hard to tell for soy/soyoil...What do you have in mind? Long soyoil/ Short soy? For what reasons?
 
Greenie said:
I am thinking soy/wheat or soy/soy oil. What do you think?
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I have been watching S/KW for a while and got stopped out a few weeks ago. But it might be worth another try if it puts in another bottom in the range. I like the S/BO seasonals better than the SM/BO I'm currently in, so that's one for my watchlist. Thanks for the idea :)

I'm not a fundamental trader, but it looks like beans do well in general starting in Feb, I assume this is because South America is in it's critical phase and in the US we are pretty far into the old crop at the same time.
 
spreadem said:
Don't know about cotton or sugar. Why are they so bullish when the news is clearly bearish?
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apparently from their conversations with their customers and the producers, the supply-demand response has come in and plantings are going to go down. Some of the guys are bullish on sugar, net non-commercials are at some kind of low. Cash sugar traders are still bearish though...
 
GiantHogweed said:
I have been watching S/KW for a while and got stopped out a few weeks ago. But it might be worth another try if it puts in another bottom in the range. I like the S/BO seasonals better than the SM/BO I'm currently in, so that's one for my watchlist. Thanks for the idea :)

I'm not a fundamental trader, but it looks like beans do well in general starting in Feb, I assume this is because South America is in it's critical phase and in the US we are pretty far into the old crop at the same time.
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Yeah I like BO better than SM now. SM/BO (premium to SM) seems to be weakening now.
 
TraDaToR said:
Marex just announced they were entering the sugar physical business :http://www.agrimoney.com/news/marex...ly-as-it-launches-physical-trading--7831.html

Hard to tell for soy/soyoil...What do you have in mind? Long soyoil/ Short soy? For what reasons?
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probably Long S/ Short BO. FWIW, this guy at ADM (admisi) servicing our accounts is telling me he is long term bullish from here as the producers can't sustain production at these levels.

Anyway, hope we can bounce some ideas around here. Most of the guys are simply hedging so quite difficult for me to get ideas on more speculative positions.
 
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long coffee short beans ,if drought stays in Minas Gerais

"
Private weather forecaster Somar warned of irregular rainfall in the center-west soy belt as well as the southeast throughout the month as an atmospheric blockage prevents a cold front from advancing over the key producing regions in the world's largest exporter of coffee, sugar, soy and beef.

That is especially worrisome in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais, which produces half of Brazil's coffee. Drought there last year wiped out as much as a third of the crop in some areas, causing global arabica prices to rise 50 percent over the year even as most other commodity markets tumbled.

Scientists said coffee trees would not recover from the extreme heat and drought quickly, and forecasts pointing to below-average rain in January caused arabica prices to rise 12 percent this week.

Somar agro meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos expressed concern about the 2015 coffee crop, which will be harvested between May and August.

"
 
Long Mar KC/ Short Chicago Wheat @ 34 on seasonality and a feeling that KC have been oversold in the last leg down( "Russian sell the news" )compared to euro wheats. I would have preferred to be filled post report...
 
TraDaToR said:
Long Mar KC/ Short Chicago Wheat @ 34 on seasonality and a feeling that KC have been oversold in the last leg down( "Russian sell the news" )compared to euro wheats. I would have preferred to be filled post report...
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I also entered part of my position yesterday before the report @ 37. Looking to add some more in the 32 - 34 range. We have strong seasonal tendencies from here into the spring and support in the 20s.
 
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