Ag trade ideas

This entry was really poor. The forward curve was so appealing I didn't even look at the chart. I guess the bottom is in now but I should have taken a few more ticks near last week's bottom.

Kind of averaged it down going long the same spread in cash settled cheese @ -0.32. Milk and cheese move in unisson but cheese is still really illiquid.
 
Anyone looking at this head and shoulders pattern on Soybeans? It is textbook, upward sloping neckline, broke through the neckline yesterday, rallied back up to it today. I give little salt to patterns, but I know everyone is looking at it.

I think everyone and their mother is watching it, but I don't trade outrights, so I am watching it for the impact on spreads. I don't have a lot of ag spreads looking good for me right now, more in the energies.
 
Yeah, that chart pattern is absolutely failing right now. Makes me wonder if the funds are even playing the long side on soybeans and trying to fade the smaller players who are short.

I watch a lot of spreads as well. I have been slowly learning to program in R, and am interested in trying to create some type of trend following system with spreads, maybe with a combination of both quantitative and fundamental factors. I have some very fuzzy ideas I would like to try out, but it will definitely take some work.
 
Long -1Mar Feeders/-1 May Corn/+2 Aug Live Cattle = Long the cattle feeding spread @ a margin of -10962$. There is a sort of triple bottom forming on the feeding spread and it is at the same time a GF/LE correlation play. LE crashed more than GF in the last few days.
 
Long Feb/ Short Mar15 Class 3 Milk @ -0.06. Small carry while the front of the curve is in steep backwardation. Visual trade.

Out @ 0.1.:) Got Lucky my stop wasn't reached last week. Should have worked my entry better.
 
Kind of averaged it down going long the same spread in cash settled cheese @ -0.32. Milk and cheese move in unisson but cheese is still really illiquid.

Out @ 0. :) Nice profit for such an illiquid market.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top