Ag trade ideas

[GiantHogweed]

Wow. I am super impressed at Austin Damiani's commentary. It's super weird he works for frontier futures. It looks like a Mom and Pop futures broker. "Exceptionally active traders can get rates as low as $9/contract."...Yoohoo.

Do you know of other interesting grain commentary available for free?

No, that's the best I've found for free.

 

[TraDaToR]

Long Mar/ Short May KC Wheat at @-3.5 at the close. Carry > Dec/Mar while it's the end of the 2014 crop and the new crop is lower.

Scratch @-3.5. New crop july is going higher so the trade is becoming a gamble.

 

[GiantHogweed]

Thanks for posting, meal has been an interesting trade, unfortunately I missed my entry and didn't get on that train.... I agree that the odds favor a short, perhaps a solid break of 16.0 on your chart would be the trigger. I would assume that the shipping delays are fully baked into the pricing here, the question is when will they break back into normal range and reverse the squeeze???

The spread I've been watching is the Z/N where a breakdown of the range below 37.0 might make sense. May need to move into F/N though as the Dec typically is rolled in just a couple of weeks.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hD7IIBqq/

Entered today on a possible break of support, long N and short F. Then it settled back in the range....

 

[TraDaToR]

That's quite a beast to short...Hopefully with soy harvest at 94% complete, meal will calm down.

 

[TraDaToR]

KCN/H looks like a possible trade here. A pullback into -4 to -8 would make a good entry for risk/reward. The play is to move toward full carry. Not an expert on calculating carry, but I think according to contract specs would be around +18 cents. Can someone confirm?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RxXaO3Xu/

Did you enter this one? It was a really good idea in retrospect.

 

[GiantHogweed]

Did you enter this one? It was a really good idea in retrospect.

I didn't enter because it never pulled back to -4 after I first saw it. There's not enough reward for the risk at these levels.

 

[thefuturestrader]

Got short the ZSF:H15 soy meal spread at around 16.7 yesterday, caught an initial move down but it appears to be catching some support, even though soy meal made a strong move down today.

 

[TraDaToR]

Here is something I entered last week @2.4. I didn't publish it at first because it is quite illiquid but I guess someone can enter a few lots. Aug/Sep15 Feeders in unusual territory( blue line on the left ). The trade is to get it back in line. I can't see a fundamental reason for what we got now.

out @ 1

 

[GiantHogweed]

out @ 1

Good trade!

 

[GiantHogweed]

Entered today on a possible break of support, long N and short F. Then it settled back in the range....

I added to my position yesterday, and will look to add more soon if it behaves. Stops @ -22 & -25. PTs @ -3 & -8

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NFXlG9Vz/