Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
Generally I enter above previous highs but this time I thought the last top would be lower, forming a head and shoulders pattern...target near 3.5 with time stop at the end of october.:)
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I'm in the same boat with you now, short a full position.
 
Rachmaninov said:
I dont really understant why this spread should be going down ?

On the statistics side, my backtests showed that its quite neutral (and volatile).

On a more fundamental basis, crusher cant crush more than their capacity, so when they have already cover all their capacity they cant do more in the sort term.
And the three markets will most likely converge to the cash prices with soymeal supported by its shortage.
I would be afraid to bet on a short trade on the crush because all the people which have already sold would need to go out of this trade because they cant deliver it.

Is is it just technical analysis ?
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My way of thinking on this is more technical. Basically, it has to revert at some point. I don't know if it will happen during the life of the Oct contract, or next year.... Or perhaps that fundamental?? :confused:
 
@GiantHogweed
I think, its already reverted on longer expiry which are on lower level

@All
Do you have any sucess with TA ?
I still dont understand why it should work and its kind of difficult to backtest TA so I never tried it.
 
Long Mar / Short May 15 Cotton @ -0.77

Just feeling that the current buying pressure on December will drag further spreads. Check the curve.:)
 
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