Ag trade ideas

[Brighton]

I just discover these reports on CME :
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/wheat-reports.html
Its really nice to understand that we will an heavy market & low volatility market

Yes, there are a lot of good S&D charts there. Usually Hightower updates them within a day or two of the USDA release dates.

You might want to take a screen shot of the corn, soy or wheat page. In the future you may need to type in the name of a report in the search box to find it. They've been moving these reports around a lot and each time they change the URL.

 

[TraDaToR]

I have something interesting on sugar but it is my first sugar curve play, so take it with a grain of salt. IMO because of the big gap between 2014 and 2015 expiries, the shape of the curve in 2015 is unusual. March and May are too low compared to a typical year like 2016. Mar/May and May/Jul are at historical lows and probably near full carry( didn't dig it further on ICE website ). Mar/may is still trending lower but May/Jul is now forming a bottom. I bought it today @ -0.24. I am looking for a target near 0 but I won't let it run after the end of the year.

 

[GiantHogweed]

I have something interesting on sugar but it is my first sugar curve play, so take it with a grain of salt. IMO because of the big gap between 2014 and 2015 expiries, the shape of the curve in 2015 is unusual. March and May are too low compared to a typical year like 2016. Mar/May and May/Jul are at historical lows and probably near full carry( didn't dig it further on ICE website ). Mar/may is still trending lower but May/Jul is now forming a bottom. I bought it today @ -0.24. I am looking for a target near 0 but I won't let it run after the end of the year.

I don't follow sugar much, but I took a stab at the V4/V5 earlier this year and got stopped out. This spread is still in a steep downtrend and is currently @ -3.04. This is second lowest in the past 30 yrs, with only the 2008 low of -3.23 ahead....

Do you know what part of the year has the largest supplies?

This is the only free site I have found with some sugar commentary. Do you know of any others?
http://www.insidefutures.com/markets/softs.php?src=sidebar

 

[Brighton]

Softs - fundamental news sources

https://www.theice.com/products/23/specs Look for SOFTS FAST FACTS. This is the Judy Ganes monthly report provided by ICE. She knows her stuff but charges a lot for the report(s) with price and trade ideas. The freebie is worth a read; good education and she'll often hint at her bias or what to watch out for.

AgriMoney.com - worth a bookmark and has a decent mobile app. One small ad that goes away once you start reading an article.

Hightower - free via some brokerages (the weekly mkt letter plus daily written and audio reports, which I think are valued at about $80/mo). Weekly market letter on its own is $25/mo. http://www.futures-research.com/

The USDA no longer puts out frequent Tropical Commodity reports and commentary. Sugar and Coffee are 2x a year. Cocoa is discontinued.

The ISO/Intl Sugar Organization is really stingy with free info, which is odd because it's supported by government money. The Intl Coffee and Intl Cocoa organizations have a fair amount of free data plus monthly or quarterly reports with charts & analysis.

Sugar Online - good service, gives you access to some really expensive ISO (sugar) reports at much reduced price compared to buying them direct from the source (strange, but true) http://www.sugaronline.com/

Note: If you look at the USDA S&D for sugar, they use a different marketing year than the ISO. Keep that in mind if you hear a blurb from the ISO and sometimes from a Licht or Czarnikow analyst.

Licht, Czarnikow and I think FC Stone International all have ala carte research, but I think it's pretty expensive.

 

[TraDaToR]

I don't follow sugar much, but I took a stab at the V4/V5 earlier this year and got stopped out. This spread is still in a steep downtrend and is currently @ -3.04. This is second lowest in the past 30 yrs, with only the 2008 low of -3.23 ahead....

Yep. That's not working in my favor...LOL

 

[GiantHogweed]

Softs - fundamental news sources

Thanks Brighton, good stuff!

 

[Rachmaninov]

Thanks Brighton, good stuff!

Yep thanks brighton. Thats really nice. Did you track the polyester / cotton spread ? They just said that higher polyester prices are supporting demand for cheap cotton.

Otherwise, here a strategy I would like to trade :
BUY BO (bean oil) - SELL KPO (Kuala lumpur palm oil) + cover FX

I think its pretty good trade, the downside is quite limited because KPO is considered as low quality compared to BO. If BO tend to be cheaper than KPO, buyers will prefer KPO. On the otherside, BO can have a substantial premium compared to KPO. I like these assymetrical trades.

However, I lack datas on KPO (tell me if you have some) to check it on more statistical basis.

I also lack the right broker to trade KPO.
Berkley future offer me 50 $/future on all markets so its like they dont like me, its such a crazy price.
Jefferies & Bach dont answer to my mails.
I feel hard to find a good broker to trade on these particulars markets (Winnipg canola, Eurex, NZX milk, Kualu Lumpur KPO, BM&F and so)

 

[Brighton]

I also lack the right broker to trade KPO.
Berkley future offer me 50 $/future on all markets so its like they dont like me, its such a crazy price.
Jefferies & Bach dont answer to my mails.
I feel hard to find a good broker to trade on these particulars markets (Winnipg canola, Eurex, NZX milk, Kualu Lumpur KPO, BM&F and so)

Have you talked to Phillip Futures?
http://www.phillipusa.com/platforms

I believe they are Singapore-based but have an office and clearing memberships in Chicago. I talked to them last Oct or Nov and their rates were decent and they offer trading on the Malaysian exchange. They might be an even better fit if you're outside of the US.

FWIW, I just glanced at the CME-listed palm oil contract and it looks like it's died a second time (no vol or OI). They tried previously in the mid 1990s.

I've been doing some research on biodiesel which has led to studying the relationships between rapeseed/canola, palm and soybean oil. I don't have much of a position yet, but based on the historical data, I think your spread trade idea has merit. (It might take a while to play out ... have to get through US soybean harvest first.)

When I trade the softs it's coffee, cococa or sugar. When I first started trading, I wanted some non-US products that weren't strongly correlated to corn, wheat and soybeans. Right or wrong, I've stuck with that so I've never traded OJ or cotton.

 

[Rachmaninov]

Thanks for philip futures, it has an impressive list of Asia markets. First time I saw so many asian markets in one broket but it sill lacks some important markets for me as Winnipeg & Minneapolis & Euronext Liffe Options.
Have you any experience on asian markets ? There is some strange and quite liquid on markets on rubber.

Yeah, CPO CME is dead. I agree with you, the sprea could stay aroud 50 $/t for a lot of time.
By the way, vegeteable oil are currently really cheap compared to oil. Bullish on very long term.

Lumber is also a market not correlated to anything else but its really tiny market.

Here a nice website to find EOD data on a lot of futures markes : quandl

 

[TraDaToR]

What about Nov14/Jan15 Feeders? There is a seasonal downtrend in the next 2 months and it is forming a triple top. I just shorted @ 6.