Ag trade ideas

Cocoa - worth a shot near the 200 day moving average?

Cocoa falls back to the short-term trend line from the 26th of December. Even though the candle posted on the 7th was a big red candle with high volume after a doji on big volume the trend remains intact. If there were people that went long from the lows around Christmas then I would suspect some of them may want to take profit on that signal especially if their focus is short term.
It's been roughly a 10% move in the underlying price so that's a good return on futures.

Also importantly the close appears to be just above or at the 200 day moving average which is showing signs of turning higher.

All of this is a positive and I would say if you are looking to go long then this is definitely a good position with a stop at 1950. The other interpretation is this is a false break of the 200 day moving average but I think it's definitely worth the risk given the relatively steady manner in which it has moved higher since the lows in late December.
 
Short ZMK18 @ 338 and long ZCK18 @374 just after WASDE. Both reacted the way I was looking for so I entered.

ZM : - ZM/BO too rich
- Front spread really low
- Argy rains this week-end

ZC: - Hella export sales
- Front spread up

Edit : Accidentally entered ZMH18. So I went long front spread @ -3.3 which made me short ZMK18 @ 341.3
 
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Cocoa bounces off the 200 day moving average

Cocoa closed at 2034 and the March contract yesterday after bouncing off the 200 day moving average around 2005. This is more or less exactly where the trendline comes in so even though it did not post above the highs on the 7th for now it is just a case of waiting to see whether the trendline holds and the price goes higher.

Volume has switched from the March contract to the May contract so, I'll be moving my position across shortly.
 
Sugar at a crossroads - changing of the guard or long term trend to resume?

In the bigger picture the 100 day moving average for sugar is pointing down and the market failed to overcome it overnight however on the upside the shorter term 40 day moving average is right at the current level so it will be interesting to see if I can move up through the longer term averages considering the two higher lows.



Still sitting on a long position of two contracts so just waiting to see where this goes. I expect we will see some decisive price action in the current move either confirming we are in an uptrend or otherwise the bulls have been overcome and the bigger picture downtrend will continue.
 
Sugar a concern as weak candle follows consolidation.

I will be very interested to see Monday's candle after yesterday's very weak effort. The current rally off the lows from the 19th of January is now almost starting to look a bit more like a sideways consolidation of the last big move down from the 3rd of January. It is going to take a lot of work to get through the 14.00 level, so just watching awaiting for now but I will be ready to act if I need to close out the position around 13.20.
 
Cocoa holding at the 200 day, ready for take-off!

Cocoa%2BCC%2BMarch%2B2018%2Bcontract%2B2018%2B02%2B11.PNG

Cocoa has impressed over the last few sessions, moving through the 200 day moving average in a very steady fashion and holding there. I'll be very surprised if the price cannot go on from here to higher levels. Great time to go long with a stop circa 1980 on the May contract which just below the 200 day moving average.
 
TraDaToR said:
Short ZMK18 @ 338 and long ZCK18 @374 just after WASDE. Both reacted the way I was looking for so I entered.

ZM : - ZM/BO too rich
- Front spread really low
- Argy rains this week-end

ZC: - Hella export sales
- Front spread up

Edit : Accidentally entered ZMH18. So I went long front spread @ -3.3 which made me short ZMK18 @ 341.3
More...

Out ZM @ 353.9. Bad trade.
 
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