Ag trade ideas

Maybe someone could explain why there is no sesonal factor when we make decomposition of wheat cont. futures (i applied a log transform)
upload_2016-2-26_0-27-19.png
 
TraDaToR said:
Good job. Say thanks to the USDA Cattle on feed report.

Short Dec 16/ Long Feb 17 Live Cattle @ 0.925.
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Out @ 0.9 for a scratch. I am reducing the number of my positions as I am in a big drawdown. I will liquidate anything that is not super reliable in my view. Here most of the front spreads are trending in historically untested territory so It's a bad idea to fade it...
 
TraDaToR said:
Out @ 0.9 for a scratch. I am reducing the number of my positions as I am in a big drawdown. I will liquidate anything that is not super reliable in my view. Here most of the front spreads are trending in historically untested territory so It's a bad idea to fade it...
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Cattle mkt is screwy right now.
 
or maybe someone could explain where i am wrong?

i try to make seasonal charts, for example, cth.
At first i take prices for each year and normalize them, e.g. cth15.


everything ok.

Then i find mean and something is wrong here.


I understand why it is so:
cth2015 prices
#(2016, 3, 4) 0.207839
#(2016, 3, 5) 0.194664
#(2016, 3, 6) 0.186100
#(2016, 3, 9) 0.152174

cth2014 prices
#(2016, 3, 4) 0.511147
#(2016, 3, 5) 0.499866
#(2016, 3, 6) 0.556272
#(2016, 3, 7) 0.583669
Problem is when there is no 7th of march in cth15 and so on.
#(2016, 3, 4) 0.359493
#(2016, 3, 5) 0.347265
#(2016, 3, 6) 0.371186
#(2016, 3, 7) 0.583669
#(2016, 3, 9) 0.152174

So help me plz to fix it:)
 
Rachmaninov said:
I didn't check the correlation but a .97 correlation look like a correlation made on a price not on variations (And you shouldn't calculate correlation on prices).

What I don't undestand is why the free fall of oil is so bad for developped stocks markets ?
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I believe all states of USA pump oil, some states don't have state income tax like Texas and Alaska and been getting a great deal of tax money from higher energy prices, so when you go from above $100 a barrel to under $30 bucks, you have to imagine a great deal reduced taxes to states. Then again states that rely on energy taxes, I know in Texas and owning a few pumps I have shut down, cities like Houston and Midland/Odessa many companies have gone bankrupt or have layed off many employees, so many more applying for unemployment while receiving much less taxes. In Alaska, for years citizens of that state received money each year instead of paying taxes, this year those payments are stopping and I think if you make so much, now you might have to pay taxes. The Dow30 and S&P500 indexes have Oil related stocks, so when they go down, it pulls rest of it down. And there are just times in stock markets when Wall Street know they need a huge pullback to have Indexes go back up, really unheard of the stock market been going up since 2009.

The Federal government also has taxes they collect based on energy, when these monies decline, they will borrow more, doubt Wall street will see this as a good thing.
 
I think I have been able to identify a few flaws of my trading during the recent DD.

First, I need to stop doubling exposure on a given market. For example, on cocoa I was short Sep/Dec and Dec/Mar because at different times both looked overvalued and I really believed at the time it was the end of backwardation on cocoa. I need to stop doing this.

Second, I put my objectives a tad bit too far. There have countless recent occurrences of the market getting a few ticks from my target and then proceed to retrace back. SW K/Q, ZW N/Z, ZS F/H, MW Z/H, CC Z/H... In the case of CC Z/H, it went within 2 ticks of my target and now it is 2 ticks from my stop.Here is a symptomatic trade, short ZW N/Z. The entry was good, the market went within 1 tick and now it has retraced more than half...

 
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