After using this trading simulator I'm convinced technical analysis simply doesn't work

TA is for suckers. Here it is best described as a method for pros to get suckers' money. Also reas Taleb's Fooled By Randomness for more improved thinking.

First, I believe in two concepts, use indicators in a way as others don't and second is find out how other use indicators so I am not entering/exiting when they do, cause "they" are usually wrong. That is why failed trendline breaks are one of the strongest signals around. Wait for the masses to get in couple ticks above a trendline, most retail use tight stops or go to breakeven super fast, then bigger traders or HFT forces market to go down to trigger all the stops, it is usually back at trendline which is now lower and where I enter. Actually moving average crossovers work well, but it is a filter to alarm a trader that trend has changed and they need to wait for retracement, people just don't understand that NOTHING foretells the future but your back testing gives probabilities and why sample sizes have to be huge. And you test you want three segments, two which can change-entry and exits, but money management should always be same of how to manage the trade. So like when I automate system, this "package" of money management rules can be dropped into any system I build, small tweaks are made cause time frames make protective stops bigger or smaller, but that's it. Indicators and price give possibilities.
 
What's the % frequency of such and you confident enough to be able to exploit it via taking trades in the opposite direction when you had expected the price to go up ?

Simply, follow your stats when your expectations are different than your stats.

For example, I often see people at this forum say that "breakouts will often fail" but there's never any specific details about the frequency of such. More importantly, is such were true, why don't they simply just take a trade in the opposite direction of the breakout based upon their stats of failed breakouts ?

My point is that there's more to the story such as even if a trader had stats like 69% of breakout fail...they will still lose money when taking trades in the opposite direction of a breakout in their attempt to profit when the breakout fails.

Reason is because just because they see it doesn't imply they know how to trade it.

P.S. Someone here at ET said he had proof that 71% of breakouts do fail. He put his stats to test and was still a losing trader of failed breakouts. Try to guess why ?

Answer: No matter what are the perceptions and no matter what are the stats...some traders still don't know how to profit (don't know how to trade) even with all that info (data) at their fingertips.
Man o Man you are so true
 
http://chartgame.com/

(Edit: The game in the link above loads up historical data of real stocks. You trade at a particular snapshot in time of the stock's performance.)

I don't mean to cause any offence to those who frequently use it here, but things I've learnt after having a play with this for several hours:

- Short/long term crossovers don't work unless you just use it to buy/hold for the long run. Even then, plenty of whiplashes undo your gains....
- Support/Resistance works sometimes but not most of the time..
- Chart patterns rarely work...
- MACD, RSI and ADX just gives too many false signals...
- Buy/hold wins everytime if you're "lucky" to hang on to a good stock....

Mind you this is just a simulator. If it were actual trading I would have probably lost my account several times over + broker fees.

Whether its years of experience staring at charts and eventually "seeing the light" or just being lucky every time, it leads me to wonder how some people find success using TA at all....

Now I still want to believe TA works and that its probably me not using it properly. But after this, kind of wondering what strategies there are left that give one the "edge" after months/years of experience...

As others have pointed out, your conclusion about TA is way premature. Based on what you've listed, you haven't even covered the tip of the iceberg.

The longest TA thread n this website covers the ACD method. Did your game cover ACD? Of course not.

Did your game cover P&F? Of course not.

The few indicators you listed is a tiny fraction of what's available to the public. Do you think examining these few is reflective of all available indicators? If so, you are sadly mistaken.

Ask yourself this: Why is there no repository of performance data available for some indicators that have been around for decades? These indicators have been tested countless times starting long ago. Why is there no compilation of the test results? Why is every trader expected to do his own testing from scratch? Of everything? It's a ridiculous situation but this is the world of trading in general and TA in particular.

Declaring TA doesn't work is like declaring there's no such thing as fresh water because you find yourself on a raft in the middle of an ocean. Escape the ocean and go find that fresh water.
 
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The folly in the game is that most people will play it and assume they have to make a trade on the next bar (they probably also fail to look at the 2/4yr charts) to get an idea of the bigger trend and/or where all the S/R levels are at...Now if you went back into the game and picked only the charts that you felt had some structure to them and then made a mental note of where the better levels are and took trades only at that time, I'd give good odds that you'd beat the buy and hold benchmark.
 
Have to be very selective who you take advice from here. A lot of posters write total nonsense about what works and what doesn't.


Welcome to the forum. Three very interesting posts you've made, so far, for someone who joined only today. :rolleyes:
 
Have to be very selective who you take advice from here. A lot of posters write total nonsense about what works and what doesn't.
You wrote so much bullshit that you've created a new account ? I mean ... One does not subscribe to a forum, that one thinks is, full of crap. My advice is to never take an advice. That's for sucker only. But don't take it. It's an advice. Ops ...
 
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http://chartgame.com/

(Edit: The game in the link above loads up historical data of real stocks. You trade at a particular snapshot in time of the stock's performance.)

I don't mean to cause any offence to those who frequently use it here, but things I've learnt after having a play with this for several hours:

- Short/long term crossovers don't work unless you just use it to buy/hold for the long run. Even then, plenty of whiplashes undo your gains....
- Support/Resistance works sometimes but not most of the time..
- Chart patterns rarely work...
- MACD, RSI and ADX just gives too many false signals...
- Buy/hold wins everytime if you're "lucky" to hang on to a good stock....

Mind you this is just a simulator. If it were actual trading I would have probably lost my account several times over + broker fees.

Whether its years of experience staring at charts and eventually "seeing the light" or just being lucky every time, it leads me to wonder how some people find success using TA at all....

Now I still want to believe TA works and that its probably me not using it properly. But after this, kind of wondering what strategies there are left that give one the "edge" after months/years of experience...

Instead of using chartgame to experiment with TA it would be better to use it without TA as a tool to test your own internal biases. If you loose consistently it shows incorrectly biased thinking.
 
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