After the 1st leg up do you sell or hold?

Visaria said:
Well, it does matter since she might make only 1 when right 95 times but lose 100 when she's not right the other 5 times.

Btw, to the OP, how do you figure you have a 95% probability of being right on a given trade? How do you know it's not 90%, or 80% or something else?
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Based on reading the chart and past experience. The problem is that such opportunities are rare so the rest of the time I am left just sitting and waiting.
Which boils down to the same dilemma, do I take on riskier trades and rely on the law of averages to keep me afloat or do I only take sure shot trades and increase my position size as time goes on. I think I will choose the latter.
 
rin4et said:
Based on reading the chart and past experience. The problem is that such opportunities are rare so the rest of the time I am left just sitting and waiting.
Which boils down to the same dilemma, do I take on riskier trades and rely on the law of averages to keep me afloat or do I only take sure shot trades and increase my position size as time goes on. I think I will choose the latter.
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The 95% chance of something going higher than what it is now doesn't mean anything without an idea of how much higher.
 
Visaria said:
The 95% chance of something going higher than what it is now doesn't mean anything without an idea of how much higher.
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That can only be known once the market plays out. I can say with certainty whether it will rain right now or not but I can't say with certainty whether it will rain at this time a month from now or a year from now. The further we go in time the lesser the level of certainty is.
To answer your question on how high I just wait for it to play out and for the chart to give me a sign to exit. That can happen 5 mins later or 15 mins later there is no way to tell.
 
beerntrading said:
Take the profit and do it again. If you're right 95% of the time, what does the size of your winners matter?
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%%
Must not be enough to cover slippage, commissions, because of the way he asked the question+ 95% can be wrong 7 months in a row. Most likely you can do better than the 7:caution::cool:
 
Had 21 small profits in a row, wiped out in the next 2 or 3 trades mainly news spikes.


Trading is a nitemare, as said every solution creates a problem and around in circles we go.


Spinning around in circles gaining real live experience will eventually get some people there, but not others.

Stocks are more about the Index then the Sector then the stock, a lot of work.
 
rin4et said:
Based on reading the chart and past experience. The problem is that such opportunities are rare so the rest of the time I am left just sitting and waiting.
Which boils down to the same dilemma, do I take on riskier trades and rely on the law of averages to keep me afloat or do I only take sure shot trades and increase my position size as time goes on. I think I will choose the latter.
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If you have success trading a system, you might as well stay with it unless it stops working. You can use your free time modeling, researching new systems, i.e., modeling, testing to see if a second leg makes sense or a 60% probability is profitable..... If you can determine a 95% win rate with certainty, you can certainly determine if a 60% win is worth your while with certainty.
 
eurusdzn said:
How long have you been getting 95% right ?
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Nobody is getting 95% right, it's theory talk calm down.

I have frequent runs 17-21 in a row right, jumping on short term fast strong momo, but it doesn't make much, so not ruling out 95% if your super scalpy, but expect the loser to give back 5 profits if not more.

Market has a way of screwing with your brain, you flip from being a ACE trader to a TWAT Newbie with a single confidence slap :(
 
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