After Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy next is Poland

Quote from Daal:
The debt to GDP might been kinda high but by looking at the spreads over bunds and CDS it seems clear everyone thought the party was going to last forever. By selling by the weak members I mean that people will have to sell their €s that they have in hand and in EU banks for the new currency, this should exert downward pressure on the fx rate(though their money on the national banks might be converted automatically), there will be also a decline in the need for €s since the country will no longer do business/trade/turism in that currency(If you take out NY, I'm pretty sure there will be less demand for USDs, etc)

As for the fair value to DEMUSD I'm not sure but I also know how markets think, if one guy goes out everyone will that think there will be a domino effect and they will extrapolate the effects I mentioned above, which might lead to panic selling of EURUSD. So I'm not sure the fair value will be reached anytime soon
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I think I would disagree with you in this regard, but I see where you're coming from.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I think I would disagree with you in this regard, but I see where you're coming from.
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Which parts do you disagree?
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

The part about the selling of EUR and also about DEMUSD.
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My opinion is that the bigger states will leave first or they smaller ones will be kicked out. The smaller states will try to stay in to get as much as they can. I think that the likelihood the Germans will stick around to suppport Eastern Europe is non existant. To be honest though it is just a matter of time before we have a private debt collapse anyway so it doesn't really matter.

I would be more worried about the loss of pension funds and insurance funds than the Sovereign debt crisis. They will most likely put the money up in the short term until 2013 2014 by then the private sector will have crashed most likely.
 
Quote from atticus:

Does the "GS" represent Goldman? ;)
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No Greece and Spain. I believe.

Atticus read my book.
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

Way to miss the sarcasm.
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No I saw it. I just wanted a reason to plug my book.
 
Dude, appreciate the fact you wrote a book on a hot topic but you've been plugging for 7 pages now. Any reader of the thread will catch that. By the time you get to about page three reading another plug becomes a complete turn off. Instead of just dropping a plug, copy and paste an excerpt from the book to give readers a taste of what's between the covers. Marketing 101 --- market the bugger hard from the get-go, become subtle thereafter. If you stay hard you will turn potential buyers away. It's like ads on the TV nowadays. I'm just running to hit the mute button to stop the ball ping hammer from bouncing off my head every time an ad comes on TV. Advertisers are completely missing this point. People don't listen to them anymore because they are so fucking annoying.

Quote from morganist:

No I saw it. I just wanted a reason to plug my book.
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