Advice needed about top traders!

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i love the fact that this nicholassegrue has not exhibited the slightest knowledge about trading - but everyone is eating shit to respond to his naive observations

a classic and valid example of hype over reality - maybe we will get another internet type boom in the next hundred years - lets hope there are more nicholassegrue coming through and we can all get on another free ride
 
Originally posted by stevet
i love the fact that this nicholassegrue has not exhibited the slightest knowledge about trading - but everyone is eating shit to respond to his naive observations

a classic and valid example of hype over reality - maybe we will get another internet type boom in the next hundred years - lets hope there are more nicholassegrue coming through and we can all get on another free ride
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Yes cocky, question for you, the other day it was announced that the underlying rate of inflation had risen to 2.6% and obviously rumours abound of an interest rate increase to reduce inflationary pressure, therefore we would expect the pound to strenghten due to interest rate differential parity and hot money inflows. However the pound weakened, why was this? My interest in trading is what led me to find out, I wander if you can tell me?
 
Originally posted by nicholassegrue
They were bond traders at Barclays Capital and it was last year, 5 of the 6 have now been sacked as a result of it, also they payed for the wine themselves it was not a meal with clients, so you are slightly wrong with your comment, anyway I have nothing to say to Don, in my opinion trading in an I-Bank is the way forward for me, I dont even want to be a trader beyond 25, as I already stated I wish to be my own boss and set up my own company once I have aqcuired the neccessary capital.
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This is something I'll address really fast.

My father works with a lot of hedge fund managers, banks, independent traders and such. It is his experience that the worst traders are actually employees of a firm where they recieve very little compensation for their performance. Most of the types of jobs you are looking at fit in this category.

What also caught my attention is your " wanting this so badly"but only until you are 25. It will take a lot longer to work to the top than 25. Most people under estimate what they can do in a decade or 2 and overestimate what they can do in a year. No firm wants to hire and train someone for only a year or 2 just to have them quit. Not when they invest a lot of time/money into someone.

You can reach your goals but be prepared for quite a few roadblocks along the way.

Robert Tharp
 
Originally posted by nicholassegrue


Yes cocky, question for you, the other day it was announced that the underlying rate of inflation had risen to 2.6% and obviously rumours abound of an interest rate increase to reduce inflationary pressure, therefore we would expect the pound to strenghten due to interest rate differential parity and hot money inflows. However the pound weakened, why was this? My interest in trading is what led me to find out, I wander if you can tell me?
More...


A quote of that nature is coming from a perspective that the market's are completely predictable. If that were the case there wouldn't be a market. The top hedge fund managers tend to only be right about 40% of the time.

Think about this question

what if the markets were completely random and controlled by supply and demand.??

Robert Tharp
 
Trader 99 thank you for your polite response, interesting to see that he who has been in the field gives the polite comments.
 
Nicholas..

it seems to me that if your real desire is to own some other business, why waste your time learning to become a trader.. it would be like someone with no interest in medicine going to school for 10 years to become a brain surgeon so he could practice for two years, pay off his debts and have enough left over to open his own subway sandwich shop or something.. why not just pursue what you really want to do?


-adam
 
nicholassegrue

in the interests in getting the internet bubble going again i will reply to your pound question

money flows to the safest situation, in short, mid and long term horizons - so an indicator suggesting higher inflation, when the interest rate does not increase - is going to cause a negative reaction, as would a rising interest rate, unless it is combined with a benign outlook

interest rates are a derivative of inflation, and inflation is a derivative of interest rates
 
rtharp wrote:

"This is something I'll address really fast.

My father works with a lot of hedge fund managers, banks, independent traders and such. It is his experience that the worst traders are actually employees of a firm where they recieve very little compensation for their performance. Most of the types of jobs you are looking at fit in this category. "


Nick, I think rtharp has a point here. Having worked on BOTH institutional sell/buy side of the biz, I can attest veracity of that statement. Performancces driven traders are usually the best. That's why hedge fund managers are usually the best(on average), because they don't get paid if you don't do well unlike mutual fund managers(earn for asset under mgmt) and i-bank traders who earn the spread.

Look at the crazy internet funds that were set up after a grand 1999 bubble! Many of them are closed or folded into other tech fund. These people DON'T really know how to trade/invest. They were just there at the right time and place for the craziest bull market in our lifetime. Merrill Lynch's Focus 20 tech fund is down like 85%! WTF?! How come the guy didn't cut his losses at maybe 20%? Or at most 25%?!! I can't understand a fund being down 85%! That's beyond my conception of sound trading principle/money management.

so, think about it.

So, don't look down on these prop traders on these boards. Yes, they aren't managing a $100M fund or a few billions like Janus or Fidelity. And they aren't sitting on a billion dollar yen/dollar cross trades or $50M currency quanto options or inverse floater or $250M MBS IO stripps.

BUT, they are doing a very important thing - learning how to trade in the market. And when you come down to it - that's what matters and what's going to be make you a good trader(if that's what you want to become). Most ibank traders are NOT what i would called "trader". They make a market - that's they earned a spread between the bid/ask.

Here's an interesting stat for you to think about. In 1993, Citibank worldwide global currency desk made $300M profits. But $600M of those came from just earning the bid/ask. And the $300M was LOSSES from currency prop trading. Markets are difficult to figure out. Being a middle man is easy...

good luck,

trader99
 
The reason for the pound not following market conditions was that due to the balance of trade deficit currently at an all time high in the UK the market did not feel the UK was ready for higher interest rates so they wouldn't appreciate the pound, as it would further damage exports, manufacturing in the UK is in dire straits at present.
 
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