Advice from the experienced

[gnome]

Quote from compisnada2002:



Well, I can only say I have not one single clue! Designing a system is for the gurus. I know a couple CTA's that use systems and they do well, but then again they have been doing this for a long time and they are usually proprietary.

I have a program that auto executes trades through tradestation too J-trader that doesn't need to have any adjustments made on the easy language code. But as for the design, well I am a broker that only knows my services and that is all.

I would never give trading advice. Now it is your turn Gnome!

You sure dodged that like a mother-in-law's phone call!!

First, let me say... my thoughts on trading are not usually comfortably received, but here goes.

1. It's all a guess.
2. Determine what appears to you to be a "trading set-up"... this requires a presumption.
3. Place your stop at least 3 points (in the ES or SP) beyond the setup's defining value.

Example. Say you've "presumed" that at SP 850, this dip would be a "50% fib retracement and recover" of the just completed advance. You are guessing what this setup is, and your stop at 847 or 846 leaves a little room for overshoot and for most of the stops to get gunned before they get to yours.

In each case, you "take a guess, with a stop" and hope you get enough correct before you get stopped out of all of your capital.

Over time, you will learn what to guess at and what to pass up.

That's as good as it gets, imo.

 

[compisnada2002]

Quote from vanilla2:

thanks compisnada - what is your j-trader system doing? is it a black box?

broker is the place to be, it sounds.

Our J-trader system is not black box, and we are currently using it for a few accounts and it works. We just launched it a couple of weeks ago on a system that is doing well.

The brokerage biz is tough with all the low rates that have swamped the industry but it can be good to you if you are patient.

comp

 

[jaan]

Quote from vanilla2:
Unfortunately though, I haven't found a strategy with good results yet working 15 hours a day

welcome to system trading. looks like you managed to skip the first "fooled by curve fitting" phase (good for you!), and have entered the second "damn, finding systems that work is HARD" phase. as there is no third phase, you better get used to it...

- jaan

 

[compisnada2002]

Quote from gnome:



You sure dodged that like a mother-in-law's phone call!!

First, let me say... my thoughts on trading are not usually comfortably received, but here goes.

1. It's all a guess.
2. Determine what appears to you to be a "trading set-up"... this requires a presumption.
3. Place your stop at least 3 points (in the ES or SP) beyond the setup's defining value.

Example. Say you've "presumed" that at SP 850, this dip would be a "50% fib retracement and recover" of the just completed advance. You are guessing what this setup is, and your stop at 847 or 846 leaves a little room for overshoot and for most of the stops to get gunned before they get to yours.

In each case, you "take a guess, with a stop" and hope you get enough correct before you get stopped out of all of your capital.

Over time, you will learn what to guess at and what to pass up.

That's as good as it gets, imo.

Yes I did dodge it but it is better than speaking out of school.

comp

 

[gnome]

Quote from jaan:

welcome to system trading. looks like you managed to skip the first "fooled by curve fitting" phase (good for you!), and have entered the second "damn, finding systems that work is HARD" phase. as there is no third phase, you better get used to it...

- jaan

No "third phase"? What about the "lost all my money, now working at McDonald's" phase??

 

[axeman]

That only happens to people who lose 25% of their
capital and dont quit.

Then lose 50% and still dont quit.

Then lose 75%, and still havent discovered they have no edge.

Then lose 100% and wish they had more to lose.

peace

axeman

Quote from gnome:



No "third phase"? What about the "lost all my money, now working at McDonald's" phase??

 

[vanilla2]

thanks very much all. even commiseration is worth something.

axeman, i hear what you're saying. very much wishing i had a phd in physics or stats.. i am just wondering, how have you guys made it long enough to be senior members on this board? are you all institutional?

i left an IT job on a wall street trading floor, so I've seen it done. but nobody i met there struck me as superintelligent, just extremely hard working with major financial and infrastructure capital. after four years, i decided to try and do it myself, besides wanting to get out of nyc and stop exchanging my labor for a fraction of what i think i'm capable of.

i haven't been expecting a bullseye in 10 days, or even a year. but i am just a little forlorn by my initial survey of the tools, and i guess... begging ...for a nudge in a good direction.

 

[NihabaAshi]

Quote from vanilla2:

I'm a new trader with good programming skills...

I see potential in a few good areas, namely adaptive MAs, fractal efficiency, double screen systems, NYSE $UVOL and $DVOL data, and SR levels...

largely inspired by this board. Still, I am struggling to make these work and feel like I've tried everything. I would greatly appreciate direction from writers of successful mechanical systems who want to give back and help out a beginner.

How do mechanical SR systems work? What works?

Hmmm...

I'm just curious...seriously curious...why you would think a trader with a successful mechanical system would share it with you...even share with you its framework?

I only know a few traders with successful systems and they don't share it with anybody.

Also...I myself use to be a doubting thomas about such systems until someone a few months ago shut me up pretty good via showing it work in person...in realtime.

(Note: She's an excellent example of those computer nerds that use to be sterotyped in movies from the 80's)

It was a tad bit scary too watch considering I'm deep seated into discretionary trading (maybe shocked is a better word than scary).

(Note: They don't trade stocks nor the Eminis and they are trading via very large accounts...very large.)

There's also that argument that what if traders got their hands on a successful system and begin sharing it...eventually the word will get out and the use of the system will spread like a virus...

after such...would the system still works?

Simply...I don't know a whole lot about mechanical systems...

but I always thought you guys had a belief that the system will begin to lose its viability if shared.

(Note: I've seen some heated arguments in the past here at ET about the issue of why would a successful mechanical system be shared unless it didn't work)

Reason why I am prompt to say that you are very naive to think someone would share with you their successful mechanical system.

You guys put in a lot of long days, long nights, sweat and tears, dollars into such systems...

I truly doubt someone will come to ET and say I have one...it works...go make a very good living from it...

freely.

Simply...if I myself had a successful mechanical trading system...

I wouldn't share it with anybody.

Geeesh...if you were a woman...you'll have to bend over a lot of times for me to even give it a second thought about sharing a successful mechanical system with you.

NihabaAshi

 

[compisnada2002]

Quote from vanilla2:

thanks very much all. even commiseration is worth something.

axeman, i hear what you're saying. very much wishing i had a phd in physics or stats.. i am just wondering, how have you guys made it long enough to be senior members on this board? are you all institutional?

i left an IT job on a wall street trading floor, so I've seen it done. but nobody i met there struck me as superintelligent, just extremely hard working with major financial and infrastructure capital. after four years, i decided to try and do it myself, besides wanting to get out of nyc and stop exchanging my labor for a fraction of what i think i'm capable of.

i haven't been expecting a bullseye in 10 days, or even a year. but i am just a little forlorn by my initial survey of the tools, and i guess... begging ...for a nudge in a good direction.

Vanilla, it sounds like you have the tenacity and good luck with you endevor! comp

 

[lindq]

Quote from vanilla2:

I haven't found a strategy with good results yet working 15 hours a day since I got the software besides fading MA crossovers (which is pretty weak). I'm stumped.

Try 15 hours a day for the next two years in backtesting, plus quite a few grand spent in losing trades and finding your comfort area.

But...it can be done. There are many paths to the goal, and you need to put in the time to find what works for your personality, your assets, your time, and your patience. What works for me, or for anyone else, may not at all be right for you.