As someone once said to me, "The JHM is simple but it is not easy" and that is true. There is, IMO, always a huge contextural component which is weighted differently when you are channel or traverse trading as opposed to cutting the 'big' turns with two-pairs or the not-so-big turns with the STR-SQU 'flicker' and walls. Everything is the same but one looks at different parts of the assembly differently.
For the 'slower fractal' traders you must absolutely know where you are in the 1,2,3 sequence or you will get royally screwed. Unless you elect to tape trade WGT-style, you have no business being in the market.
What is very confusing is the situation where you have what appears to be completion. You're then 'looking' for a change signal, you 'find' it, enter the market and then watch as the whole thing goes down the crapper. What's the deal, Neil? You KNOW that change signal was Kosher yet no change occurred.
The deal is context and the critical component of context is the CORRECT RTL. You simply cannot have change (of the standard traverse type for the slower fractal traders) if you are on the wrong side of a correct RTL. What does this mean? It means your P2 has to be positioned above (uptrend) or below (downtrend) the correct RTL. If you don't have the P2 you can't have a P3 and you can't have change (an FTT) without a P3.
So draw some tapes and draw some RTL's and watch the stuff for a few days. Do this on YM2 and ES5 and watch very closely how YM leads ES at pointes du change. Oh yes, and to facilitate this exercise you have to do the Spyder-slide, the nkhoi-nudge or come up with something of your own to deal with the gap.
Jack likes to talk about developing a sense of trust between oneself and the market. It is a concept that is difficult for edgers to appreciate because the very nature of their trading method (probabilistic = correct, X% of the time) dictates that they are going to get screwed periodically. Hence stops.
The JHM is NOT probabilistic. It is Boolean and hence is supremely well-suited to the 'tell' concept but you gots to have the correct tell or again you are going to get screwed. IMO, a real tell is an absolute on-off, a "0" or a "1".
So for JHM traders who are not sure about whether or not their 'tell' is what it is supposed to be (an absolute on-off signal), either stayTF out of the market (Option A) or use a stop like Mr. Black, the benificent Bulgarian does (Option B). Both will help you avoid nasty losses.
One last thing the difference between 'anticipating' and 'predicting' is one that relates to the time component of the three degrees of market freedom (P, V and t). When one anticipates one lets the market inform you when the time is upon you, whereas when one predicts one instructs the market as to when that time should occur.
I'm back to observing, "M"-ing, if you will. My risk capital allotment (as opposed to end condition) is so pitifully low I simply cannot trade, for real, until I'm dancing with Mrs. P. For the perspicacious B-team market aficionado (is that an oxymoron?) that would mean I have selected option A.
lj
For the record, there are some B-teamers who really are effective at their edge-craft. Hypo is one of them and I truly do miss not having his wit and yes, occasionally, wisdom, gracing the boards. We are all occasionally wise and it is usually (and best) when we don't know that we are so.
Here's a great song from a great movie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAqRwZ9YYw0