Adventures in the garden of good and evil
- Thread starter ljyoung
- Start date
The problem with the volume discordant phenomena (see prior posts in this thread) is that there is (for me at least) no way of knowing when the correction will occur. This AM for example, there are 3 time frames where they are present (15, 60 min ES and 2 min YM) and as of now (11:14 EST) all remain uncorrected. There are an infinite number of ways that price can move from one level to another (not unlike transitions between thermodynamically-defined energy states) and if you don't allow the market to point the way, you will get screwed. So don't use these very useful (IMO) phenomena as edge triggers. If you cannot divorce what the market is doing from what is essentially a prediction, then do NOT use these phenomena at all.
lj
lj
The major discordant volume patterns spoken of earlier have been corrected BUT be very careful because a set of minors have been generated AND it's a long time before the 30 min and 60 min ES bars are complete. My data providers (DTNIQFeed and Zenfire) show just 30-60 contracts (Total V = ~3500 contracts) separating the YM early AM low and the current YM ID low. Is this enough? I don't know.
lj
lj
I mentioned in an earlier post that it has been my habit to collect certain types of data from a just completed day and use it to get an impression of where things might be the following day. Some time ago I read a post from someone here on ET who said he didn't do this because he wished to be free of bias.
As of today I am following his tack. I have found it to be, for me, essentially impossible to divorce myself from the expectation of certain things happening when I collect these data. I do not have a similar problem with the discordant volume stuff. No doubt there is some wag out there who has a profound and meanignful explanation as to why this is so, the most obvious being that it isn't so, but spare me the psychobabble. There are still some horizontal lines in the sand that are worth having on one's chart and as well the prior day's intraday range and volume are good to know. The Hershey-Spyder (sorry ST I don't know your last name) 2 bar methodology forces one to deal with the most immediate reality and with the externalities of the first paragraph floating about this cannot be done as cleanly as it might be.
This is not to say that one should not be aware of "previously announced programs of events". This scenario is not what I'm talking about. If you wish to hold your position into a FOMC announcement go ahead but first know when the announcement is going to be made.
The financial services machine needs to have the vast majority of players as poorly informed as is possible to ensure that the cash flow continues in the correct direction. One of the best ways to do this is to create false expectations about what is going to happen but as The Who says, "Me don't get fooled again" and if me do, me post right here, in the garden of good and evil.
Have a good weekend,
lj
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3mi-bKtDGA&feature=related
And for those of you who like una guitarrista and a good drummer or dos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAaBYQzN7Lw&feature=related
As of today I am following his tack. I have found it to be, for me, essentially impossible to divorce myself from the expectation of certain things happening when I collect these data. I do not have a similar problem with the discordant volume stuff. No doubt there is some wag out there who has a profound and meanignful explanation as to why this is so, the most obvious being that it isn't so, but spare me the psychobabble. There are still some horizontal lines in the sand that are worth having on one's chart and as well the prior day's intraday range and volume are good to know. The Hershey-Spyder (sorry ST I don't know your last name) 2 bar methodology forces one to deal with the most immediate reality and with the externalities of the first paragraph floating about this cannot be done as cleanly as it might be.
This is not to say that one should not be aware of "previously announced programs of events". This scenario is not what I'm talking about. If you wish to hold your position into a FOMC announcement go ahead but first know when the announcement is going to be made.
The financial services machine needs to have the vast majority of players as poorly informed as is possible to ensure that the cash flow continues in the correct direction. One of the best ways to do this is to create false expectations about what is going to happen but as The Who says, "Me don't get fooled again" and if me do, me post right here, in the garden of good and evil.
Have a good weekend,
lj
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3mi-bKtDGA&feature=related
And for those of you who like una guitarrista and a good drummer or dos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAaBYQzN7Lw&feature=related
It's eventide here in the garden and life is good. The volume discordances have abounded over the past few days and we sit on some rather obvious ones this RTH EOD. The overnight ES (and YM for that matter) are as yet (11:53 PM EDT) razzer tight no doubt awaiting the AM Employment Numbers. I wonder who already knows what they are and whether they'll tip their hand.
Dumping the bias monkey has been ever so invigorating. Did my first reversal today, albeit a tad late and for reasons of preservation (misread one of those freakin' OB's) as opposed to profound forethought, but the latter will come soon (heh, heh).
And yes Jack, I will be careful tomorrow.
A little something from James Marshall and to all a good night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGqPzrNypzw&feature=related
Yeh OK and some Foos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKhnmUdmz74&feature=related
lj
Dumping the bias monkey has been ever so invigorating. Did my first reversal today, albeit a tad late and for reasons of preservation (misread one of those freakin' OB's) as opposed to profound forethought, but the latter will come soon (heh, heh).
And yes Jack, I will be careful tomorrow.
A little something from James Marshall and to all a good night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGqPzrNypzw&feature=related
Yeh OK and some Foos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKhnmUdmz74&feature=related
lj
The lower pole of the 6/26 Globex intraday gap (1283.00) is within striking distance and it should be noted that YM has already passed above, tested and passed above again, its lower pole.
As mentioned in the OP, JHM is the cornerstone of my trading methodology but I put my own twist on it. Some portion of this bent is composed of older probes which JH has recommended and one which I find particularly useful is the multiple timeframe (time fractal) concept. This is nothing new as many traders of whatever ilk use more than one time bar to facilitate their trading efforts. Shown below is an annotated chart from todayâs ES using a 30 minute time bar. The 1,2,3 channel can be seen on other time frames, both faster (5 minute, 15 minute) and slower (60 minute) than the one used here. Unless one is a BSD, the trader will use information from this chart for purposes of monitoring only.
Which is to say that the time fractal for trading, and as well the trading fractal itself will be much faster. So for example one might decide to trade the 5 minute ES as a âtraverseâ trader as opposed to the 30 min ES as a âchannelâ trader (a BSD in other words). The chart shows tapes (white) [= 2 adjacent bars, the vast majority of the time] traverses (blue - up and purple - lateral) [= at least 3 bars] and finally the beginnings of a large channel [= at least 3 bars]. The initial left rail (left trendline) of the large channel is still forming. Briefly put, tape trading is âfasterâ than traverse trading which in turn is âfasterâ than channel trading. The reason for this has to do with the signals for action (or inaction) developing at different price bars during the course of the day. For more information on this stuff please check out the âIterative Refinementâ thread which goes into the details of these various entities. JH is the middle of a very tight, lucid presentation concerning the theory and practice of his method and this too can be found on the IR thread.
lj
Edit: First time for an 'intrapost pictorial for me' so I shrank it. Also for clarity, I have added a 'large' modifier for the developing channel. The completed traverse is a mini-1,2,3 channel.
As mentioned in the OP, JHM is the cornerstone of my trading methodology but I put my own twist on it. Some portion of this bent is composed of older probes which JH has recommended and one which I find particularly useful is the multiple timeframe (time fractal) concept. This is nothing new as many traders of whatever ilk use more than one time bar to facilitate their trading efforts. Shown below is an annotated chart from todayâs ES using a 30 minute time bar. The 1,2,3 channel can be seen on other time frames, both faster (5 minute, 15 minute) and slower (60 minute) than the one used here. Unless one is a BSD, the trader will use information from this chart for purposes of monitoring only.
Which is to say that the time fractal for trading, and as well the trading fractal itself will be much faster. So for example one might decide to trade the 5 minute ES as a âtraverseâ trader as opposed to the 30 min ES as a âchannelâ trader (a BSD in other words). The chart shows tapes (white) [= 2 adjacent bars, the vast majority of the time] traverses (blue - up and purple - lateral) [= at least 3 bars] and finally the beginnings of a large channel [= at least 3 bars]. The initial left rail (left trendline) of the large channel is still forming. Briefly put, tape trading is âfasterâ than traverse trading which in turn is âfasterâ than channel trading. The reason for this has to do with the signals for action (or inaction) developing at different price bars during the course of the day. For more information on this stuff please check out the âIterative Refinementâ thread which goes into the details of these various entities. JH is the middle of a very tight, lucid presentation concerning the theory and practice of his method and this too can be found on the IR thread.
lj
Edit: First time for an 'intrapost pictorial for me' so I shrank it. Also for clarity, I have added a 'large' modifier for the developing channel. The completed traverse is a mini-1,2,3 channel.