Adventures in the garden of good and evil

The dip were a feint but not the whole show, IMO. Multiple time frame volume discordances for ES but as to when they'll be remedied - perhaps tomorrow, perhaps not. The quasi-parabolic prejobs rally is totally bogus but who cares - who ever cares.

Those with large, bulbous cojones will be up in the AM to grab some of that 8:30 action. It would be interesting to see some blotters on those trades from the members of H.A.R.M. who frequent this site. Mine will be blank but I do know of a few who will trade the announcement and make money at it.

lj
 
Discordant volume. A point or two re same. As with anything I say, these impressions are to be considered working hypotheses. If something changes I will say so. As far as I know this particular view is original but if someone knows otherwise please post same.

If the volume of the most recent swing low (high) is the largest volume of the run down (up) from the most recent swing high (low), then there will be a new swing low (high) within the next several bars. This may not happen if:

(1) the volume of the low (high) is larger than the volume of a recent swing low (high) and the price of this low is higher (lower) than the price of the recent swing low (high).
(2) there is a new swing high (low) which has a volume greater than the most recent swing low (high).

Exception (1) occurred today and in my experience it is frequently corrected the next day but can take longer. It is uncommon. Exception (2) may not be evident and/or corrected for a very long time (days to years). It is rare.

I have no facile explanation for these phenomena but they are not VSA or Hershey PV derived. I have observed them when trading ES, YM, DIA, SPY and GOOG and cannot say to what extent they apply to other vehicles. It is not a good idea to consider them with cheap, illiquid stocks, futures, ETF's, etc.

Are these outcomes 100% predictable? They are high probability outcomes but not Boolean. That being so, then caveat emptor.

lj

BTW, "uncommon" does not equal "less probable than not" which to a lawyer (especially PI lawyers) = 49.99999999%.
 
Quote from nkhoi:

why I keep thinking of some boring town down in Georgia?
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Enlighten me nkhoi. Why is it that you keep thinking this way? In a desperate search to find an answer to your ponderous question, I googled 'boring Georgia' and came up with this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYw0LghFsk4
Is this what you're talking about? Like being dead and some group singing about it? If so, then too :cool:

lj

And yes I can double as a straight man.
 
A couple of more points and then I'm off to the Hamptons. The exception (1) noted last PM is very frequently followed by a 'rally'. A good rule of thumb is: "YM leads but ES says when and by how much". What I don't know for sure, but suspect to be so, is that the opposite is true, i.e., "If YM doesn't lead, then ES doesn't say when and by how much".

Today is the 64th anniversay of the invasion of Normandy. Requiescant in pace. http://www.geocities.com/~bblair/fallen_twp.htm

lj
 
ES pierced the lower Taylor objective twice, the second time at higher level than the frist. YM didn't touch its TOBL. I don't trade NQ. I luv PA; I really do.
WSJ says "something spectacular is needed" to reverse the PA of the last little while or so or something like that. Hah.

lj
 
Quote from ljyoung:


I am not yet a competent practitioner of JHM but will be soon, I believe. When I feel the time is right I will post trades but I will not call trades. Livermore used to lock himself in a room during market hours and did so for a reason (which might become evident in the future).

To use JHM most effectively you must be able to reverse but you don't have to do this to make money with it. I'm working on the reversal thingy at the moment. cnms2 has remarked that the nice thing about staying in the market is that you don't have to be concerned about the entry-exit phenom. However as always, when in doubt, bail.
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Using reversals is a tough job for someone who's starting out. I'll advice a beginner to enter on point 3's on increasing PRV and to exit when a FTT is perceived. It's a pretty safe way to trade and manages to capture the majority of a trend if performed well.

Once you determine that you're consistently profitable you should start using reversals. Pick a volatile day like last friday after the payroll numbers came out. On a volatile day trends are larger in size and it's alot easier to compensate for losses resulting from wrong reversals.
 
Quote from FerdinandAlx:

Using reversals is a tough job for someone who's starting out. I'll advice a beginner to enter on point 3's on increasing PRV and to exit when a FTT is perceived. It's a pretty safe way to trade and manages to capture the majority of a trend if performed well.

Once you determine that you're consistently profitable you should start using reversals. Pick a volatile day like last friday after the payroll numbers came out. On a volatile day trends are larger in size and it's alot easier to compensate for losses resulting from wrong reversals.
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Thanks Ferdie for your thoughts and interest. I really do believe that being able to reverse is critical to maximizing profits and know it will be yet some time to come before I will be carving turns with precision . The P3-FTT routine is well familiar to me and I do not feel I have to restrict myself to that. I am profitable now and have been trading long enough to know my limits.

Anyhows as I said earlier, YM clearly indicated what it wanted to go this AM (not go down) and in fact, although ES had thoughts of its own (to go down), there was no followup 'close down Monday' which is important. YM stayed inside and though ES made a lower low it closed higher than Friday, forming an IBGS (intrabar Gaussian shift). There were several of the volume thingys I talked about earlier, including an ID L on peak volume in the 30 min ES chart which was dealt with today.

lj
 
FA,
As a further followup on the reversal thingy here's my plan of attack:
1. Start with an account amount such that you have to make $x before you can trade 2 cars.
2. When you reach this amount trade 2 cars/entry but scale out 1 car after a certain profit is made.
3. If you fail go back to 1.
4. If you succeed continue with the scaleout for a certain amount
and then start reversing the remaining 1 car.
5. If you fail go back to 2.

You can use any multiplier you want and can select what the 'certain amount and certain profit' are. I'll let you know how it works out.

P3's can be tricky, as we know, and especially when they are nestled inside a lateral formation or a lateral movement. I have observed that the rising volume that is being looked for materializes with the breakout from the LF or LM. PRV's can be tricky too especially on days like today where the boyz are fighting about which way to take the market. Tomorrow should be fun.

lj
 
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