Advancing to Next Level

[heavenskrow]

So I believe I have acquired the skill-set of catching the top/bottom in the markets price action with about 60-75% accuracy. My question is how does one hav the guts to initiate and hold the trades(for a while) when the momentum is so opposite in regards to trade direction.

For example today, I covered my YM short position at 9:36AM PT, it wasn't the last tick, but it was well damn near the lows. Had I had balls of steel, I would have reversed my position instead of just covering there.

On the other hand after the huge rip late afternoon, I was able to short TF at 12:05 PT on a market order which got me filled at 1004.10. However by looking at the P&L too much or staring at the screen, I got spooked and sold for only a 6 tick profit. However had I had cajones and a system, it went down for almost 100 points within minutes since initiating my position.

I guess I can pinpoint key levels in the market where others who are seeing what I am seeing, will come in as well. However at tops and bottoms, the momentum is usually so strong it really takes a bold contrarian to enter the trade. Then once you enter, you have to almost be able to hold while it slowly changes from bull/bear, bear/bull...trying to scare you out of your position.

If anyone has any system in mind for this strategy, please let me know. Thanks

 

[speedo]

While I don't encourage the arrow catching business, if you really have talent at finding reversals, you should design and test your own ideas based on your observations. Finding a template to plug into is a tough way to go. We all see things differently. One man's ceiling is another man's floor.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

So I believe I have acquired the skill-set of catching the top/bottom in the markets

If anyone has any system in mind for this strategy, please let me know.

Explore -- you're Christopher Columbus discovering new land.
i never understand these kind of questions/posts...you want some Genie to come out and tell you how exactly it will play out -- no one knows.

 

[Laissez Faire]

You can't believe in this business, you need to know.

Momentum is obviously not strong at a bottom or a top, so I don't know what you're talking about. A market will often bottom out or top out on the loss of momentum. Following that, momentum could pick up in the opposite direction, which is what you'd want, if you picked a top or a bottom. Because then you're positioned in the new direction, right?

No offense, but it seems like you have a long, long way to go. My suggestion: Keep studying.

 

[sprstpd]

Once you enter a position, put a stop in and a target and wait until it hits one or the other. In the meantime, you can leave your trading desk and do other things. Getting away from your desk (or wherever you trade) forces you to keep your trade on until completion.

 

[wrbtrader]

...For example today, I covered my YM short position at 9:36AM PT, it wasn't the last tick, but it was well damn near the lows. Had I had balls of steel, I would have reversed my position instead of just covering there...

If anyone has any system in mind for this strategy, please let me know. Thanks

Did you or did you not have a valid Long signal after you covered that Short position ?

If you did have a valid Long signal, document it as a missed trade signal and continue keeping stats of all of your missed trade signals including their results had you taken them. The answer is in your stats about price action like that and you only need to do then is follow the trail of your stats.

In contrast, if you did not have a valid Long signal and you're just talking intuition stuff that involves the should'uv, could'uv and would'uv stuff via hindsight...just ignore it and box it with the "if only had I played those lottery numbers"...

 

[heavenskrow]

You can't believe in this business, you need to know.

Momentum is obviously not strong at a bottom or a top, so I don't know what you're talking about. A market will often bottom out or top out on the loss of momentum. Following that, momentum could pick up in the opposite direction, which is what you'd want, if you picked a top or a bottom. Because then you're positioned in the new direction, right?

No offense, but it seems like you have a long, long way to go. My suggestion: Keep studying.

Right, at tops or bottoms it's usually a capitulation of buying or selling on heavy volume over the average volume.

However what I meant by momentum was for example for the past 30 minutes or hour, it was non stop selling/buying....then you see what looks like a very key level. You enter into the trade, contrarian to the prior momentum trend, with nothing but probabilities and risk in your favor. At this point I'm gasping for air and my heart is beating to see if other traders are going to join with me.
Nothing is for certain, and the market can continue on with it's trend or spike above your stop loss level.

 

[heavenskrow]

Once you enter a position, put a stop in and a target and wait until it hits one or the other. In the meantime, you can leave your trading desk and do other things. Getting away from your desk (or wherever you trade) forces you to keep your trade on until completion.

When I enter a trade that is usually a top/bottom, I have no target since it is actually up to the market to show where it wants to go after hitting that key level. Then based on what the market does after reacting to the level, it tells me where I can take my target area.

Whenever I place a stop near a key level, sometimes I feel as someone is seeing my stop level and will take that out before reversing. haha

But your right, getting out of the trading desk is probably the best thing you can do once you have a set plan.

 

[heavenskrow]

Did you or did you not have a valid Long signal after you covered that Short position ?

If you did have a valid Long signal, document it as a missed trade signal and continue keeping stats of all of your missed trade signals including their results had you taken them. The answer is in your stats about price action like that and you only need to do then is follow the trail of your stats.

In contrast, if you did not have a valid Long signal and you're just talking intuition stuff that involves the should'uv, could'uv and would'uv stuff via hindsight...just ignore it and box it with the "if only had I played those lottery numbers"...

Hey wrbtrader,
After I covered my short position, I am not sure if I had a valid long signal. I mean the market showed it wanted to hit that key level and I only had probabilities that it would react to that level so I covered. Now if I was a raging bull and I was waiting patiently to get long based on what the market told me, I would have went long at that level.

I guess the only thing "I had" was a "probability" that the market would react to that price level. There was no certain outcome or a target level for the long entry at that area in which I covered the short.

Thank you again for your word of wisdom, I will start to make a log of missed "trade signals."

 

[Turveyd]

Counter Trade, temp bottoms, you get a suckers bounce, your basically being the sucker, you need to get out fast, first sign of trouble cause the sell off, will be quick to trap in as many of the suckers as possible and make there tight SL's slip.

Much Much Better, where your exiting, taking a position with the trend.

I've played that game for years, thinking everything will reverse, it's a suckers game.