ADSK

[yabz]

Autodesk looks looks like its heading for the knackers yard. Its losing money and the chart is in a down trend,

Possible ways to short:
1) Buy a long dated put
2) Short the stock
3) Sell credit spreads

Each has its advantages but I'm thinking of buying 2020 ATM puts, simply because its less hassle and stress.

 

[Cuddles]

Long here..... Any reasoning besides charting?

 

[yabz]

Earning have been falling for the last decade and management can't figure out how to change that. 0.35% of shares are held by insiders - hardly a vote of confidence....

 

[Cuddles]

Earning have been falling for the last decade and management can't figure out how to change that. 0.35% of shares are held by insiders - hardly a vote of confidence....

They're still top dog in that software field....I don't foresee Hollywood stopping making movies, video game development slowing down, or engineers switching software packages any time soon. You think there's enough competition to break that monopoly?

 

[yabz]

This is a survey of CAD users. Autocad doesn't even have the largest market share. Also if it was a monopoly it would be able to put up its prices....The management doesn't seem to be able to do that.

 

[Cuddles]

This is a survey of CAD users. Autocad doesn't even have the largest market share. Also if it was a monopoly it would be able to put up its prices....The management doesn't seem to be able to do that.

AutoCAD is their oldest product, they also make inventor, Maya, and 3ds. I think I went long because they're also relying on the cloud making them more piracy resistant. I'm open to explore this sector with other publicly traded companies though. It's a niche market with very few players.

Your bets on this market?

 

[LS1Z28]

This is a survey of CAD users. Autocad doesn't even have the largest market share. Also if it was a monopoly it would be able to put up its prices....The management doesn't seem to be able to do that.

That survey is directed at the manufacturing industry. Solidworks has been the most popular software for 3d modeling for a long time. Based off their charts however, Autodesk leads this industry now as well. (They produce Inventor and Fusion360.)

Autodesk produces 50-100 different software programs beyond AutoCAD. They are the clear industry leader for architectural design and civil development. I would say that the only industry they don't dominate is GIS. ArcGIS/ESRI is the flagship platform in that sector.

Over the past few years Autodesk has moved away from perpetual licences to annual subscriptions. This has alienated a lot of it's users. But it's still the staple software run by most engineering and architecture firms. I would be scare of going short long term with the possibility of an infrastructure bill being passed later this year. But who knows if that will happen. Anyways, I wish you luck in whatever move you make.