Adding to winners not to losers

Based on your backtesting of your method, hopefully more than a couple years trading ES, what is your percent profitable trades?
Did you find a "mean" of so many losing trades in a row? I average down on all trades in ES cause I know my method well and have found, depending on your losing percentage, averaging down can certainly make breakeven trades become profitable.

I certainly never recommend to a young trader to do this, as many have not backtested far back enough.
 
Quote from Handle123:

Based on your backtesting of your method, hopefully more than a couple years trading ES, what is your percent profitable trades?
Did you find a "mean" of so many losing trades in a row? I average down on all trades in ES cause I know my method well and have found, depending on your losing percentage, averaging down can certainly make breakeven trades become profitable.

I certainly never recommend to a young trader to do this, as many have not backtested far back enough.
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I don't always add to winning trades, only when I feel we haven't reached the primary target and strong price action develops as we get there. If after I add I witness the opposite, I bail. Like today, I was long off the bottom, we reacted nicely and added some shares then we retraced abruptly and closed the trade. Afterwards I saw it was a shakedown, so started building again, and then at the end once again.

Winning percentage probably around 55%, that also includes very small winners. Sometimes I have gigantic winners, I never have gigantic losses that possibility just does not exist in my trading.

I like the market to confirm that the direction Ive chosen is the correct one, you are probably more into mean reversion, therefore, as the price goes against you, it's probably a "better entry". In my case a "better entry" is price doing what I thought it would do.

I don't have a method per se, I use a daily chart and a 5 min, and I go on feel, don't use indicators either. Many times I don't even use charts, aside from the key areas I've memorized, the rest is feeling the DOM.

As far as ES, I don't always trade ES, sometimes I do equities, or forex, depends on what I see or how I feel in the morning. I'm not tied to one instrument per se.

NAD
 
This morning after the market opened, saw some minor weakness due to a right shoulder so decided to short it small and added as the market confirmed my analysis.

We got pretty fast to a nearby support area in which I got trailed stopped and reversed due to bull strength, slowly building a new long, so far so good.

Let's see if we can take this right shoulder, so far market is acting strong although a bit slow.

NAD
 
Well, the pyramid I was building fell apart out of nowhere with a sudden fast selling move during lunch hours so the position I was building was trailed stopped for minor gains.

During the sell off I saw an opportunity to buy but it seems I was too early, thought it was real good, so took it in ES, anyway, did not like what I saw, felt lack of confidence so closed it for another minor gain.

All in all, I gave it my best, minor gains better than losses, I'll take it.

Im calling it for today.

NAD
 

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Did some minor scalping at the end and got me more minor gains, seems like the broker made some money too, but I made 4x as much as them, so no complaints.

Was a complicated day.

NAD
 

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don't write trading journals it's a waste of time

nobody reads the journals anyways

journals okay for developing a trading system ony.

Quote from noaveragingdown:

Did some minor scalping at the end and got me more minor gains, seems like the broker made some money too, but I made 4x as much as them, so no complaints.

Was a complicated day.

NAD
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Assumption: You are Long.

You are up. You add a position. The average price of entering the position also increases.

So lets say you are up 10 points, you add an equal position when you are up those 10 points. Then your average position will be up only 5 points. Therefore, if the market goes against you for 5 points you back at square one.

I don't get the rational. Why would you add to any position.

THe best way is to get out of positions little by little.
 
Quote from brokenmarkets:

don't write trading journals it's a waste of time

nobody reads the journals anyways

journals okay for developing a trading system ony.
More...

I disagree I read it, he's got the only honest journal Ive seen in this board and is worth reading about his style and developments.

Good job NAD.
 
Quote from sawyert25:

Assumption: You are Long.

You are up. You add a position. The average price of entering the position also increases.

So lets say you are up 10 points, you add an equal position when you are up those 10 points. Then your average position will be up only 5 points. Therefore, if the market goes against you for 5 points you back at square one.

I don't get the rational. Why would you add to any position.

THe best way is to get out of positions little by little.
More...

I trail, I don't let it go too far against me precisely because of what you mentioned I could also use individual stops if I wanted to.

The way I trade I need to see price confirm my theory of direction before committing more capital this prevents me from having catastrophic losses and increases my chances of superb winnings.

I don't get killer winnings all the time, but once in a while I do, and over the course of time, that makes me good money.

Averaging up never made sense to too many traders, particularly those who come from the reversion to the mean camp of dollar cost averaging. However, in my most humble opinion, I could not trade comfortably any other way. In trading we must choose what makes us money but also allows us to work in a comfort zone, otherwise the job gets too stressful.

NAD
 
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