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Adaptation
- Thread starter bandit
- Start date
Quote from vanilla2:
Suppose there were strategies that were good month over month and year over year for more than a decade, with only minor adjustments necessary. How infinitesimal are the odds that anybody but the developers would ever know anything about them?
Isn't the assumption that everything can be optimized out of the market just as inflexible as a trader with an unadaptive mentality?
There are indeed some universal truths about trading that hold true in all environments... paradoxically, many of these truths are diametrically opposed to eachother... so the game becomes one of introspection, in order to work out which truths you are comfortable at consistently exploiting...
Yes, methods and techonology change, and we adapt to survive. But the one thing that doesn't change is PEOPLE.
People are the market, expressing their fear and greed through price action.
And people's gut emotions (fear and greed) and their reactions to them, are one thing that I for one plan to continually count on to remain the same.
People are the market, expressing their fear and greed through price action.
And people's gut emotions (fear and greed) and their reactions to them, are one thing that I for one plan to continually count on to remain the same.
One of my tools:
One set up that will work each and everyday is the market is Wyckoff "selling and buying climaxes" Look for the biggest volume bars on the 1 min bar and you will 90% of the time find a top or bottom.
Usually around a 3rd Stv bollinger Band. After the lower high or higher low is put in on less volume, the best risk to reward entry lies there. The 21MA will act as some resistance but if taken out, the market will trade higher about 70% of the time. Some call this a 1-2-3 buy/sell or ABC. Call it what you want. It offers the best trades set ups each and every day.
This is pure emotion and the market trading off fear and greed. buy the fear and sell the greed. People will never change.
This can generally be a 4 to 1 risk/reward ratio. Not Bad.
One set up that will work each and everyday is the market is Wyckoff "selling and buying climaxes" Look for the biggest volume bars on the 1 min bar and you will 90% of the time find a top or bottom.
Usually around a 3rd Stv bollinger Band. After the lower high or higher low is put in on less volume, the best risk to reward entry lies there. The 21MA will act as some resistance but if taken out, the market will trade higher about 70% of the time. Some call this a 1-2-3 buy/sell or ABC. Call it what you want. It offers the best trades set ups each and every day.
This is pure emotion and the market trading off fear and greed. buy the fear and sell the greed. People will never change.
This can generally be a 4 to 1 risk/reward ratio. Not Bad.
Quote from 3dog:
Yes, methods and techonology change, and we adapt to survive. But the one thing that doesn't change is PEOPLE.
People are the market, expressing their fear and greed through price action.
And people's gut emotions (fear and greed) and their reactions to them, are one thing that I for one plan to continually count on to remain the same.
I notice that too. For about 47 years nothing has changed. I particularly liked the mutual fund types when they came into being. The inane asset allocation stuff has been such a boon to others who trade with TA instead. Money managment types are particularly good as a base of mythical proportions to work off of too.
Thank God people will never change their styles. Do you think a lot of them are edge and mechanical types?? I don't know what makes them be so consistent as yet.