Acrary's Confidence List
- Thread starter mark_mm
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At the 50% level 70% of the trades are winners +3,500 and 30% of trades are losers -1,500 so the net is +2,000.
Can anybody explain this? I do not get it.
When I have for example 100.000 sets of 10 trades each. For example, for 5 trade iterations:
Then I sum up each column and get the profit or loss from each trading cycle.
What does the 50% level mean? 50% of all trade iterations of 100.000? So taking 50.000 model.Outcomes(see picture above) and if the sum is below 0 then it is a los and if it is above 0 then its a gain?
I really appreciate your replies and hints, how to replicate the acrary experiment!
Can anybody explain this? I do not get it.
When I have for example 100.000 sets of 10 trades each. For example, for 5 trade iterations:
Then I sum up each column and get the profit or loss from each trading cycle.
What does the 50% level mean? 50% of all trade iterations of 100.000? So taking 50.000 model.Outcomes(see picture above) and if the sum is below 0 then it is a los and if it is above 0 then its a gain?
I really appreciate your replies and hints, how to replicate the acrary experiment!
It tell's that with 50% confidence (probability) u'll have 70% winners with 500points profit each and 30% losers with 500points each, so net will be 7*500-3*500 = 2000points
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Thx for your reply. But what is actually meant by the 50% confidence level?
Is it a sample of 50.000 trades of the 100.000 and taking from the 50.000 trades all winners and losers?
Appreciate your reply!
No. Read about Monte-Carlo Analysis - what does it mean.
You have 100.000 sets of 10 trades.
Confidence 50% means that half of that sets (50.000) have a MAXIMUM 70% winning trades or worse. Actually it's not statistical significant confidence. Usually takes 95% (to estimate high border of some value) and 5% (low border). 50% confidence has a little value to system evaluation.