Acrary is a genius!

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Trading opinion is really like religion: my god is the only correct one and if you don't believe in her then your are wrong and will go to hell (loose money trading)

It hard to take any of this very seriously without performace metrics and the trades that created them.



Quote from New2thegame:

Jack,

I don't want to deride this thread, but I suppose I need to play it as it lays; in this thread.

I'm new to this realm, relatively speaking so I haven't come to many conclusions as your words seem to suggest. While it doesn't seem unreasonable that the market is composed of fractals, I have no current basis (other than your word) to take this and their relationships as truth. That said, I've never heard acrary mention fractals so I'm not immediately convinced he and you are on the same page. Maybe he will clarify? If you both, or anyone else on ET that's profitable are trading the one universal truth you refer to, it is very clear that you communicate it via extremely different means. I suppose what I'm saying is: While I have no doubt that acrary has discovered some powerful things, I have no reason at the moment to believe they are those same things you live by.

While I'm new enough, and perhaps naive enough to consider a great many things at this point in the game, your posts always seem to imply, albeit indirectly, that there is only one way that the market operates. Assuming you are correct in this assertion, is it safe to assume that anyone not using your methods can't be profitable consistently? If they can, how do they manage this by way of these simple truths you speak of escaping them? Is it that they are using said universal truths without even realizing it? I'll consider it a possibility for discussion's sake.

It's your interpretation that acrary concurrently trades his models so perhaps you can opine as to why he has the need for a classification of general market theme model?

What market variables are you referring to use in place of an edge or price?

You've stated in the past that there is no reason to hide anything in the markets since you've never seen anything useful by your standard get gamed by too many knowing of or operating it. If that is so, how about a nice step by step post explaining a bit of clearly written theory followed by color-by-numbers examples of what it is that you do precisely? If it's real and it works, then this should be easily demonstrable, correct? Would you be willing to do this? I can connect dots with clear instructions. If you choose to insinuate that this will remain above my head, please at least say so in clear enough terms that I can properly defend myself.

What belief system is it that you are so convinced that I have? We've gone back and forth about the whole conventional wisdom thing. If I were entrenched in CW as you assert then I wouldn't be trying to be a trader. I would "know better" and realize it wasn't worth the effort. I believe some of my early harsh comments in my first thread left a strong impression. CW is all I knew to come in with, but I intend to leave here making money whether that's any consequence of ET or not. If you, acrary or anyone here shows me something worthy of consideration, I will take it seriously. You demonstrate something that clearly works and is axiomatic and there is nothing left to fight. Show me, show us all. For those who may think to remind me, I know that no one owes me anything. All I can do is ask. I am asking....

You spend a great deal of time telling others what they are doing incorrectly and perhaps more time stating what others could be doing correctly, but not in a way that allows them to correct their mistakes. You may not intend to (I'll provide benefit of doubt) but your posts often reek of elitism. You either believe we can't learn(ridiculous), don't want us to learn (intended obfuscation, after all, some would say we are your competition. I know, not you though), or are just flexing your presumed intellect in poorly chosen prose for your own edification on his board. If you choose to speak in code, you must expect others to question you, your intent, or your goods. Once more, show me something I can act on 5 minutes from now, and I may just surprise you.

D
 
Quote from Jerry030:

OK, but something like 10:1 doesn't tell much about system impact on capital. It’s very easy to develop a system or group of systems that trade in that way but if they only trade once every 1000 bars they will have limited impact on the wealth of the trader.

A much more useful metric is total account capital doubling time as this takes into account commission, slippage, reserve capital beyond margin, wins losses and everything else.


Again, you are talking about the unnecessary at this point details. If you're interested in this stuff, you could start by reading thread "System Development with acrary".

The discussion here is about approach to the markets, system building. What you want to know is very dependent on secondary details, like how many systems are used, what markets are traded and what the systems themselves are. But you could get very different results using the same approach.

I don't know what it is exactly what acrary uses and what he uses artificial immune response system for. Is it for performing classification or is it to tell what systems to use in the current market conditions. Another interesting topic is how do you represent price data in order to classify it in a structured way. I know this information may be worth millions of dollars and it won't be divulged here on public forum.
 
Jack's been playing this game on the internet for more than a decade. Don't get sucked into it.

Example: some people from Harvard came up empty handed after trying to decipher Jack's "teachings" for more than a year, starting in 1999. Look at how they felt after wasting all that time:

...I don't understand why it's not possible to verify such a successful futures trading system if it is based on objective rules. My own attempts to automate the system have been frustrated at every turn by an enormous problem that is apparently only resolvable by gut instinct... I have spent a great deal of time respectfully reading and thinking about what you have written, but mostly what I feel now is frustration.
http://groups.google.com/group/misc..._frm/thread/ccc785d53a418f8a/ad6210f80809669d

Quote from New2thegame:

Jack,

I don't want to deride this thread, but I suppose I need to play it as it lays; in this thread.

I'm new to this realm, relatively speaking so I haven't come to many conclusions as your words seem to suggest. While it doesn't seem unreasonable that the market is composed of fractals, I have no current basis (other than your word) to take this and their relationships as truth. That said, I've never heard acrary mention fractals so I'm not immediately convinced he and you are on the same page. Maybe he will clarify? If you both, or anyone else on ET that's profitable are trading the one universal truth you refer to, it is very clear that you communicate it via extremely different means. I suppose what I'm saying is: While I have no doubt that acrary has discovered some powerful things, I have no reason at the moment to believe they are those same things you live by.

While I'm new enough, and perhaps naive enough to consider a great many things at this point in the game, your posts always seem to imply, albeit indirectly, that there is only one way that the market operates. Assuming you are correct in this assertion, is it safe to assume that anyone not using your methods can't be profitable consistently? If they can, how do they manage this by way of these simple truths you speak of escaping them? Is it that they are using said universal truths without even realizing it? I'll consider it a possibility for discussion's sake.

It's your interpretation that acrary concurrently trades his models so perhaps you can opine as to why he has the need for a classification of general market theme model?

What market variables are you referring to use in place of an edge or price?

You've stated in the past that there is no reason to hide anything in the markets since you've never seen anything useful by your standard get gamed by too many knowing of or operating it. If that is so, how about a nice step by step post explaining a bit of clearly written theory followed by color-by-numbers examples of what it is that you do precisely? If it's real and it works, then this should be easily demonstrable, correct? Would you be willing to do this? I can connect dots with clear instructions. If you choose to insinuate that this will remain above my head, please at least say so in clear enough terms that I can properly defend myself.

What belief system is it that you are so convinced that I have? We've gone back and forth about the whole conventional wisdom thing. If I were entrenched in CW as you assert then I wouldn't be trying to be a trader. I would "know better" and realize it wasn't worth the effort. I believe some of my early harsh comments in my first thread left a strong impression. CW is all I knew to come in with, but I intend to leave here making money whether that's any consequence of ET or not. If you, acrary or anyone here shows me something worthy of consideration, I will take it seriously. You demonstrate something that clearly works and is axiomatic and there is nothing left to fight. Show me, show us all. For those who may think to remind me, I know that no one owes me anything. All I can do is ask. I am asking....

You spend a great deal of time telling others what they are doing incorrectly and perhaps more time stating what others could be doing correctly, but not in a way that allows them to correct their mistakes. You may not intend to (I'll provide benefit of doubt) but your posts often reek of elitism. You either believe we can't learn(ridiculous), don't want us to learn (intended obfuscation, after all, some would say we are your competition. I know, not you though), or are just flexing your presumed intellect in poorly chosen prose for your own edification on this site. If you choose to speak in code, you must expect others to question you, your intent, or your goods. Once more, show me something I can act on 5 minutes from now, and I may just surprise you.

D
 
Quote from New2thegame:

Jack,

I don't want to deride this thread, but I suppose I need to play it as it lays; in this thread.

I'm new to this realm, relatively speaking so I haven't come to many conclusions as your words seem to suggest. While it doesn't seem unreasonable that the market is composed of fractals, I have no current basis (other than your word) to take this and their relationships as truth. That said, I've never heard acrary mention fractals so I'm not immediately convinced he and you are on the same page. Maybe he will clarify? If you both, or anyone else on ET that's profitable are trading the one universal truth you refer to, it is very clear that you communicate it via extremely different means. I suppose what I'm saying is: While I have no doubt that acrary has discovered some powerful things, I have no reason at the moment to believe they are those same things you live by.

While I'm new enough, and perhaps naive enough to consider a great many things at this point in the game, your posts always seem to imply, albeit indirectly, that there is only one way that the market operates. Assuming you are correct in this assertion, is it safe to assume that anyone not using your methods can't be profitable consistently? If they can, how do they manage this by way of these simple truths you speak of escaping them? Is it that they are using said universal truths without even realizing it? I'll consider it a possibility for discussion's sake.

It's your interpretation that acrary concurrently trades his models so perhaps you can opine as to why he has the need for a classification of general market theme model?

What market variables are you referring to use in place of an edge or price?

You've stated in the past that there is no reason to hide anything in the markets since you've never seen anything useful by your standard get gamed by too many knowing of or operating it. If that is so, how about a nice step by step post explaining a bit of clearly written theory followed by color-by-numbers examples of what it is that you do precisely? If it's real and it works, then this should be easily demonstrable, correct? Would you be willing to do this? I can connect dots with clear instructions. If you choose to insinuate that this will remain above my head, please at least say so in clear enough terms that I can properly defend myself.

What belief system is it that you are so convinced that I have? We've gone back and forth about the whole conventional wisdom thing. If I were entrenched in CW as you assert then I wouldn't be trying to be a trader. I would "know better" and realize it wasn't worth the effort. I believe some of my early harsh comments in my first thread left a strong impression. CW is all I knew to come in with, but I intend to leave here making money whether that's any consequence of ET or not. If you, acrary or anyone here shows me something worthy of consideration, I will take it seriously. You demonstrate something that clearly works and is axiomatic and there is nothing left to fight. Show me, show us all. For those who may think to remind me, I know that no one owes me anything. All I can do is ask. I am asking....

You spend a great deal of time telling others what they are doing incorrectly and perhaps more time stating what others could be doing correctly, but not in a way that allows them to correct their mistakes. You may not intend to (I'll provide benefit of doubt) but your posts often reek of elitism. You either believe we can't learn(ridiculous), don't want us to learn (intended obfuscation, after all, some would say we are your competition. I know, not you though), or are just flexing your presumed intellect in poorly chosen prose for your own edification on this site. If you choose to speak in code, you must expect others to question you, your intent, or your goods. Once more, show me something I can act on 5 minutes from now, and I may just surprise you.

D

Thanks for your response. I appreciate it.

I commented in the vein I did to move to where you are and I really do not have an interst in drawing you to where I am.

ET amply demonstrates that there are many many ways to trade and there is a spectrum of results. I certainly follow and classify a bunch of them by their characterisitcs in terms of the profits they generate and the rate at which those profits can be safely compounded.

I'll parse you comment and maybe what I suggested may become more meaningful. It is certainly not my way or the highway. I just find acrary's life expereinces and his progress to be quite instructive.

Sometimes people with the orientation of the Conventional Wisdom of the financial industry are skeptical of anything outside of that dopmain. I'm so glad to see that you are not sceptical and are not wedded to that CW.
 
Quote from cipherscribe:

Bozwood,

I clever sentence and 2 lines of code, and I have precisely what I've been looking for. Thanks for the direction.

no problem
 
D [/B][/QUOTE]

Quote from New2thegame:

Jack,

snip...

Fractal comment.

In the FI it is common to speak of ST, IT and LT. A whole glossary has grown around this concept.

Some people use multiples of 7. Others use calendar divisions.

I use seven divisions and I just gave them names for convenience.

If you check out platforms, they are often arranged in a heirarchy that affords convenient use in a multi chart manner. check out redneck's second post where he reveals his grasp of using three charts on differning durations for interrelating how markets are running in context.


I suppose what I'm saying is: While I have no doubt that acrary has discovered some powerful things, I have no reason at the moment to believe they are those same things you live by.

We do share a lot of common viewpoints. I'm sure there is a great deal of overlap in our view of market principles.

While I'm new enough, and perhaps naive enough to consider a great many things at this point in the game, your posts always seem to imply, albeit indirectly, that there is only one way that the market operates.

For me the market is always right and I believe it is good to have a documented partnership with the market. In that way, who does what is defined with precision.

There are implications and they are very broad and the "one way" theme is not applicable as far as I am concerned.

[/color]

Assuming you are correct in this assertion, is it safe to assume that anyone not using your methods can't be profitable consistently?

{color=green]Consistent profitability is available and practised in very many ways. The spectrum is quite broad from breakeven to taking the total continuing offer of the market on any fractal so chosen.

I assume that anything anyone tells me is their truth of the matter.[/color]

If they can, how do they manage this by way of these simple truths you speak of escaping them?

the vast majority of people use induction; I use deduction. If you make a venn diagram of these two approaches, the overlap is not too great for many reasons. By focusing on the overlap, you can see why these people gnerally do not want to venture into deduction. Two good examples, one for each are OODA of John Boyd and the MADA of PEP and its applications: PVT, SCT and SSR. Canslim of WJO if placed on the Venn diagram, represents a good portion of where the overlap is found.

Is it that they are using said universal truths without even realizing it? I'll consider it a possibility for discussion's sake.

See above. use the three synopses and high-light the particular overlaps.

It's your interpretation that acrary concurrently trades his models so perhaps you can opine as to why he has the need for a classification of general market theme model?

he is using a series of envelopes for particular focuses. Again you can make a venn diagram of 100 degrees of freedom. ID grouping of degrees that are in close proximity. Now consider how the operating point of the market moves about. It does not jump around. Instead, it migrates. consideration of effectiveness and efficiency can lead one to accept the market's changing operating point as THE place to be. as this optimization becomes apparent, it is possible to see how the value of focussing on degrees of freedom that matter and ignoring those that do not matter. It is a matter of intellectual conservatism for some people. Other people do the same thing all the time regardless of their subconscious or unconscious warning messages. check out the financial behavial studies done by big money that verify fear and anxiety. these things do not come out of thin air. They come from knowing that it is not known just what is going on (risky too).

What market variables are you referring to use in place of an edge or price?

those were the items I asked you to use as common elements of all fractals. These begin with PM's of a HS. A three element set for PVT is P, V and A/D. there you find 8 combinations. They are scored and they follow an 8 part order of events. similarly, SCT uses P.V combinations as binary vectors. B2B 2R 2B is the long pattern; R2R 2B 2R is the short pattern. B is black and R is red. there are three moves depicted for each. The patterns overlap at their respective ends.

Logically the overlap defines the nesting of the fractals containing the patterns. The ratio is three to one.

B2B or R2R has one price move and two volume moves. Move is a binary vector term. 2R have a one to one correspondence of P and V moves. So does 2B


You've stated in the past that there is no reason to hide anything in the markets since you've never seen anything useful by your standard get gamed by too many knowing of or operating it. If that is so, how about a nice step by step post explaining a bit of clearly written theory followed by color-by-numbers examples of what it is that you do precisely?

I do that everyday for both the stock and commodities market. for today the 8 page distribution took place at approaximately 2:35 pm Tucson time. the ES closed @ 2:15 Tucson time.

People who are involves in the PEP and its applications use my daily as a reference and a learning tool. I do a weekly video tht is about 75,000 frames including audio. Power points support the video.

this was introduced in the manner you suggest over a five year period in ET in several journals. there are about 200 ET pages of coding that support platforms and aTS's for these things.{/color]

If it's real and it works, then this should be easily demonstrable, correct?

Yes it certainly is. There are telephone numbers listed in ET for those who wish to speak to those who have witnessed live trading in their offices (not our officies).

Would you be willing to do this?

Ordinarily, I do trade in fornt of others daily. Now I only hand out dailies because of personal matters.

I can connect dots with clear instructions. If you choose to insinuate that this will remain above my head, please at least say so in clear enough terms that I can properly defend myself.

there is nothing difficult about trading PEP and its applications. Fifth graders can do it. So can sixth formers and fifth formers. College students can do it. I have met very few people who cannot do it. It is not complicated even.

As you might realize, knowledge is involved and so are skills. read some of the OCD's comments in ET and consider how they got that way. There is a conflict in beliefs systems. The brain and mind does not have an eraser. Once a person is in the grip of some kind of belief system he has acquired; he is stuck with the consequences. He got those by acquiring experience. acrary went through changing from one belief system to another by an evolution. You can read about the general process under neurolinguistics etc.. It is very difficult to deal with the consequences of making bad decisions over time.

People, as you suggest, do need their heads examined. So examine yours.

Those who decide to not do it, make that decision based primarily how important they are and how important their use of time is.
 
What belief system is it that you are so convinced that I have?

Mostly the CW of the financial industry and some college education in a traditional field. Very little on the ground experience with money and how building wealth occurs through partnering with the markets. Or less.

We've gone back and forth about the whole conventional wisdom thing. If I were entrenched in CW as you assert then I wouldn't be trying to be a trader. I would "know better" and realize it wasn't worth the effort. I believe some of my early harsh comments in my first thread left a strong impression. CW is all I knew to come in with, but I intend to leave here making money whether that's any consequence of ET or not.

as you say you have taken a money making fork in the road orientation. ET is largely oriented as you are. you are definitely in the majority and I am definitely in the minority as is acrary.

If you, acrary or anyone here shows me something worthy of consideration, I will take it seriously.

Take a lead from the examples of 4 out of 5 people. rejecting learning how to think critically and learning how to learn. and learning how to acquire a differentiated mind is not what people do on ET, ordinarily. I do not have anything that fits the "worthy tst" for MAKING MONEY. NAKING MONEY IS NOT WHAT LEARNING TO TRADE IS ABOUT.

I dig your orientation and the specific attitude that comes with it. doing the "work" to become knowledgable and skills is different than doing the work to "make money".


You demonstrate something that clearly works and is axiomatic and there is nothing left to fight.

There is nothing adversarial about knowledge and skills. In trading there is, in fact, no competition. Huge markets offer. A trader takes the offer if he wishes. OODA is the "fight" game. Go see john Boyd or Sttenbarger. They do the fight thing using induction.

Show me, show us all.

That happened and it was fun. some people didn't "get it. I have been trained to not care. I did care for quite a while.

For those who may think to remind me, I know that no one owes me anything. All I can do is ask. I am asking....

You spend a great deal of time telling others what they are doing incorrectly and perhaps more time stating what others could be doing correctly, but not in a way that allows them to correct their mistakes.

there is no way I can get tradere666 tro be rich like others who use the approach. If I tell him to use a correct Universe (would you like the current one posted daily?), it simply is not possible for him to use it like opther do who are successful.

I post the rules of trading stocks frequently (A one pager) I give a 77 page reference for its use. People who construct the universe are in daily contact and they always know the batting order for the week.

Getting upto 8 or 10 pages daily form jme requires opening an email printing the charts gluing the charts and debriefing the day's activities.

do you think getting 2,000,000 hits ayear is "not a way for people to get it?'. Of course they do not correct their mistakes.

You can see photos of Antarctica daily on ET. Get serious.


You may not intend to (I'll provide benefit of doubt) but your posts often reek of elitism. You either believe we can't learn(ridiculous), don't want us to learn (intended obfuscation, after all, some would say we are your competition. I know, not you though), or are just flexing your presumed intellect in poorly chosen prose for your own edification on this site.

I am a little different. trading is not a matter of intellect. It is a mater of having a mind that is differentiated with respect to the markets and personal skills. Acquiring such is done through "work" and work comes in the form of purposeful learning doing drills. Drills are simple repetitive activities that turn short term memory into organized long term memory. It is like learning to drive a car. You cannot read your way to driving a car.

If you choose to speak in code, you must expect others to question you, your intent, or your goods.

I do speak in the language of taking the market's offer. I speak to those who do work. I am swer questions of observers in the observer's language. PEP and its applications are foreign to the CW of the financial industry. the measures of the financial industry to what we do are ridiculous. They are off the scale and, therefore, unbelievable and astonishing. That is the way it is.

you arequestioning me; I am responding. you may just be sitting on your ass asking questions. Many people are debriefing using an 8 page guide today. I don't think you are one of them. you know why; I know why.


Once more, show me something I can act on 5 minutes from now, and I may just surprise you.

Have a coke and print this and reread it 10 times.

Please don't surprise me.
 
Quote from Indrionas:

Again, you are talking about the unnecessary at this point details. If you're interested in this stuff, you could start by reading thread "System Development with acrary".

The discussion here is about approach to the markets, system building. What you want to know is very dependent on secondary details, like how many systems are used, what markets are traded and what the systems themselves are. But you could get very different results using the same approach.

I don't know what it is exactly what acrary uses and what he uses artificial immune response system for. Is it for performing classification or is it to tell what systems to use in the current market conditions. Another interesting topic is how do you represent price data in order to classify it in a structured way. I know this information may be worth millions of dollars and it won't be divulged here on public forum.

Sure but at some point in all of that process one has to stop and say if I do X the result is Y, if I do Z the results is Y * 1.5 or 0.5.

I don't have the time or interest in reading vast amounts of discussion until I see some concrete objective numbers somewhere (better than mine, hopefully) as there is so much of this on ET that leads to nothing but empty debate, often among folks with significant unresolved personality issues.

So if the systems involved used without the refinement under discussion = 9.897 and with it you have = 11.3 (by whatever metric) then there is an objective reason for my interest.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Attached is page 1 of 8 carry over for tomorrow. See if you can read it.
Poor old Jack believes he was hired by the UN and several countries to investigate claims of global warming at Antarctica as he told us in this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161373&perpage=6&pagenumber=14

Quote from jack hershey:

You may not be a professional explorer hired by various nations or the united Nations. I was and there was a purpose. Long range planning primarily.

attachment.php

He must be the only professional adventurer that never leaves his computer



Don't forget to stop in the gift shop on your way out and buy the limited edition Jack Hershey paper trading doll to commemorate his stellar 24% loss in a trading contest in 2002 that he didn't have the integrity to finish.. limit one per customer

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2428031>
 
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