sound complicated,
here is a a trend in the most simple form, you see one big trend down for the whole day, or there are four smaller trends, down, up, down,up.http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2016533#post2016533
Acrary is a genius!
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here is a a trend in the most simple form, you see one big trend down for the whole day, or there are four smaller trends, down, up, down,up.http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2016533#post2016533
System today entered a trade and didn't close it yet at end of day. Of course, technically the system closes and reopens after the weekend in real life to avoid weekend risks.
I don't think I'll bother everyone with a daily update. Maybe once a week.
Wayne
I don't think I'll bother everyone with a daily update. Maybe once a week.
Wayne
Since your trades are 100% profitable, it implies that you could hold them forever (at least for very long time).
So you close them every Friday and re-open every Monday, and pay spread over and over and over again?
Also, if you trade forex with leverage do you include profits/losses from interest? They may be a real pain in the ass for the kind of system that will probably hold trades forever.
Excellent question. I'm using MB Trading. Rumor has it that their carry rates are exorbitant. So I'm going to experiment with paying them a couple times if a trade holds of a day or so. They recommend closing before 5:00 pm and reopening a position to avoid carry charges.
Obviously, that costs commission so I'm going to try it both ways (long and short since carry charges do vary based on long or short the pair) and see which is cheaper.
I'm also looking into switching to IB since they sound like they have better rates. But those who recommend them also warn they have virtually zero support. So I may stick with MB due to their excellent support until I have other issues ironed.
So it's an ongoing evaluation.
Another thought. I want to build redundancy into my system. So I may want 2 brokers just like I want 2 servers, two hosting providers, etc.
Sincerely,
Wayne
Obviously, that costs commission so I'm going to try it both ways (long and short since carry charges do vary based on long or short the pair) and see which is cheaper.
I'm also looking into switching to IB since they sound like they have better rates. But those who recommend them also warn they have virtually zero support. So I may stick with MB due to their excellent support until I have other issues ironed.
So it's an ongoing evaluation.
Another thought. I want to build redundancy into my system. So I may want 2 brokers just like I want 2 servers, two hosting providers, etc.
Sincerely,
Wayne
It's understandable, by the way, why you think that one necessarily follows the other.
Most true "breakthroughs" in thinking come from asking how to accomplish the impossible.
My purpose in posting was never to offend anyone nor divulge the results of my hard work nor convince anyone either. It was to thank Acrary.
I apologize to anyone who feels I diverted the original purpose of this thread. It was unintentional. I won't post any more here except on the subject of thanking Acrary.
Sincerely,
Wayne
This statement is incorrect. I've already said such a model exists, and another poster already showed a detailed backtest of such a few posts back. Start understanding why or why not it is possible for a start (hint: models can have caveats).
I'm not vouching for the poster, but I am making an assertion contrary to yours.
Let's start off with defining %Profitable:
Would you consider individual order entry as one trade or a series in a single direction as a trade.
In another words, is an entry a trade or is an exit a trade?
Any reasonable system tester uses 1 entry to be considered as a single trade to be calculated. Any type of averaging or compression of any data causes us to screen out viable details of information for the tests done... (well... we all have limited resources so there are some compromises to be made with the tests you run, AND THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF IT IS KNOWING WHAT YOU ARE COMPROMISING AND PUTTING THAT COMPROMISE INTO CONSIDERATION)
Test everything.
There is a strategy with 100% profitable trades.
Here's an example:
Strategy takes long trades only. Price cannot go below zero, so the biggest possible loss for the trade will be the price of entry.
Strategy enters long trades every 100 points: at 1200, at 1100, at 1000, etc...
Each trade has a profit target of 100 points. If trade was entered at 1000, its target would be 1100. (other profit taking strategies are possible too). No trade has stop loss, it exits with profit only.
Let's say you trade 1 contract, and your first long trade was at 1200. Your maximum theoretical drawdown is:
1200 points for the first trade
1100 points for the second trade
etc.
7800 points if price reached 0. Or $390k. Plus margin to maintain 12 contracts.
But you also take 100 point profits on retracements. So here goes: small rewards ($5k) versus huge loss ($400k) that will never be taken.
Here's an example:
Strategy takes long trades only. Price cannot go below zero, so the biggest possible loss for the trade will be the price of entry.
Strategy enters long trades every 100 points: at 1200, at 1100, at 1000, etc...
Each trade has a profit target of 100 points. If trade was entered at 1000, its target would be 1100. (other profit taking strategies are possible too). No trade has stop loss, it exits with profit only.
Let's say you trade 1 contract, and your first long trade was at 1200. Your maximum theoretical drawdown is:
1200 points for the first trade
1100 points for the second trade
etc.
7800 points if price reached 0. Or $390k. Plus margin to maintain 12 contracts.
But you also take 100 point profits on retracements. So here goes: small rewards ($5k) versus huge loss ($400k) that will never be taken.
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