About the RV Industry Getting Clobbered

[vanzandt]

If you're gonna own one, go with Thor. $THO.

It's solid, they've been paying a healthy dividend for the last 15 years (currently 2.3%), the payout ratio is north of 10%, and there's a huge backlog on Airstreams.

As @newwurldmn pointed out, the price of these things falls off a cliff when when you drive a new one off the lot, but the one exception to that rule is in fact an Airstream. Try to find a used one for cheap. No such animal.

THO is down almost 50% from its 52 week high, and as I recall the CEO bought a ton of it around $105.

Honestly, I have never looked at RV stocks. But I find this post interesting because I was driving home from Florida a few weeks ago and passed a large RV dealer (maybe in Tennessee?) and couldn't believe how much inventory they were sitting on - just "seemed" to be a lot. And if demand is slowing and financing more challenging, could be more pain ahead.

Lol. Great minds... I always think the same damn thing. I drive by one pretty regularly and I always look over and just scratch my head. There's a lot of money just sitting there doing nothing that's for sure. This one's right next to the interstate too and I swear I don't think I've ever seen anyone out there walking around on the lot. Big place. That said, they don't sell Airstreams.
Go with $THO>>> $77

 

[wartrace]

I never really understood the RV crowd. Seems to me like it's like towing a small home behind your vehicle (or driving your home) and setting up in a trailer park every night. Leave your crowded suburban house to live in a crowded RV park? I guess some people go out to remote land and camp solo (I think I would like that) but I would HATE being 10 feet away from the next "camper". Wouldn't it be just as affordable to stay in a hotel and fly to destinations you would like to see?

 

[deaddog]

I never really understood the RV crowd. Seems to me like it's like towing a small home behind your vehicle (or driving your home) and setting up in a trailer park every night. Leave your crowded suburban house to live in a crowded RV park? I guess some people go out to remote land and camp solo (I think I would like that) but I would HATE being 10 feet away from the next "camper". Wouldn't it be just as affordable to stay in a hotel and fly to destinations you would like to see?

You have to do it to enjoy it. When's the last time someone dropped by and asked what you liked about your home? Happens all the time with RVs.
Get to meet a lot of nice people.
Great way to vacation with your own stuff. At least you know who was in your bed last night.

 

[treeman]

at this point I'd hope that things may be near a bottom so this is a welcome sign. The P/E ratio is just too cheap depending on what you project for the future.

Is the bottom here near?

Hope is not a strategy. Why the need to have risk on, when the market isn't working out for you? Clearly the conditions aren't working for you. Narratives will crush your portfolio. I wish you the best of luck.

 

[vanzandt]

Hope is not a strategy. Why the need to have risk on, when the market isn't working out for you? Clearly the conditions aren't working for you. Narratives will crush your portfolio. I wish you the best of luck.

You're right, it's not a strategy, but when the tide goes out, fundy's roll in.
How many people remained risk-off in March 2020? Most. Oh to be able to go back in time and shop.

Huge corrections are opportunities for astute buyers. There's a handful in tech right now, but since this cat brought up RV's... THO is the one to own.
It may go lower, but if our economy doesn't completely collapse, $77 is good level on this stock. THO is not going away. The others may, Thor won't. Too well managed. It always has been.

 

[wartrace]

You have to do it to enjoy it. When's the last time someone dropped by and asked what you liked about your home? Happens all the time with RVs.
Get to meet a lot of nice people.
Great way to vacation with your own stuff. At least you know who was in your bed last night.

I guess if you are a "people person" it might be appealing. I am a bit of a loner and having so many people around me would not be enjoyable. To each his own I guess.

 

[treeman]

You're right, it's not a strategy, but when the tide goes out, fundy's roll in.
How many people remained risk-off in March 2020? Most. Oh to be able to go back in time and shop.

Huge corrections are opportunities for astute buyers. There's a handful in tech right now, but since this cat brought up RV's... THO is the one to own.
It may go lower, but if our economy doesn't completely collapse, $77 is good level on this stock. THO is not going away. The others may, Thor won't. Too well managed. It always has been.

THO is in a stage 4 downtrend. Bagholders make a market, so thanks. Any buy, is based on nothing but a narrative and hope. There is zero evidence of upward price movement. Zero. But you don't have to take my word for it. Gamblers should be able to do what they want. I support purchasing stock in industries in a downtrend. Not for me personally, but for the overall liquidity of the market.

 

[deaddog]

I guess if you are a "people person" it might be appealing. I am a bit of a loner and having so many people around me would not be enjoyable. To each his own I guess.

Well the other side of the coin is you can get off the grid and still have some of the comforts of home. I'm too old to sleep on the ground anymore.

 

[vanzandt]

THO is in a stage 4 downtrend. Bagholders make a market, so thanks. Any buy, is based on nothing but a narrative and hope. There is zero evidence of upward price movement. Zero. But you don't have to take my word for it. Gamblers should be able to do what they want. I support purchasing stock in industries in a downtrend. Not for me personally, but for the overall liquidity of the market.

Oh yeah? Well a profitable company at a PE of 4 with growing revenue means if I buy every share, I'm making money hand over foot in about 4 years. Granted that's simplifying things from a REAL WORLD business standpoint... but you want to talk about TA. So we'll talk about TA.

Stage 4 downtrend. Yep I'll give you that. It sure looks like it, but allow me one better one.

Look at the chart again real close.
See if you see anything.

Start with the 2020 feb low of $32. Go to the most recent high of $152.
Subtract those two and what do you get? $120
Bfd right?

Now multiply $120 by 61.8%
(uh-oh... the lights coming on)
$120X.618=$75

$152 - $75 = $77

Where'd it just close at?

$77

It's called a perfect Fibonacci retracement. See, I see things in nature... and in charts.

Not trying to be nasty, you do what you want... but if its achoice of me buying a company that pays itself off in less the 5 or 6 years vs buying some of this other crap out there... I'm going with the real world.

Plus, I'll take Fib's over all this other chart mumbo jumbo any day.
Show me 5 technicians, and I'll show you 5 different opinions.
Fibonacci lines have a universal power. In nature... and on charts.

>>>>And THO is sitting at A PERFECT 61.8% RETRACEMENT


Edit: Again, you took my tone in my first post wrong. it was not criticism of you or what you wrote.
So whatever on that.
gotta dip out for now... so you have a good nite.

 

[themickey]

I guess if you are a "people person" it might be appealing. I am a bit of a loner and having so many people around me would not be enjoyable. To each his own I guess.

You gave me an idea. Start a 'loners persons' club, then we could get together and have regular loners celebration parties.