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Other key measures include one hour along with 30, 20 and five minutes. When it comes to one hour, the location of candlesticks within the price range is just as important as the baseline. When it comes to 20 minutes and five minutes, the position of the candles within the price range is more important than the baselines.

From my perspective, the two-hour, one-hour and ten-minute baselines constitute the kind of "fanning moving averages" often described by Nick McDonald. However, rather than waiting for candlesticks to "pullback into the buy zone," as recommended by Trade with Precision; the ideal trade setup is simply defined as when the ten-minute baseline switches direction from a "prolonged" course (relatively speaking) contrary to the slopes of two slower moving averages to a trajectory that is aligned with them, as highlighted by the red arrows in the following image...

NOTE TO SELF: Add another column to the chart in Post #100 labeled Clarity, which will indicate how "distinctly" the one- and two-hour baselines are sloping in a given direction (i.e., in how "straight" of a path the two moving averages are angling themselves up or down).

 

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Sunday | March 19, 2023 | 8:52 PM PDT

Due to GBPUSD's green 7:00 PM PDT candle being "mis-colored" given the pair's bearish hourly trend, the statistical odds of the 8:00 candlestick being red "should" have been greater than average. But, due to cons outweighing pros, I had my doubts. Nonetheless, it DID turn out to be red, so a 60-minute binary option put contract WOULD have been in-the-money at expiry, which I just want to note for the (my personal) record.

 

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I started by creating the chart below, to be filled out 15 minutes before the hour, every hour, to be used when deciding (five minutes before the start of the next hour) which one-hour binary option contracts to purchase via the Deriv.com platform.

So far, rather than actually filling out the chart (as it appears in Post #102) physically, I'm using it to evaluate the currency pairs each hour mentally.

 

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The eight-hour price range suggests that AUDJPY ought to find it difficult to venture below the 88.07 neighborhood...

I will therefore be looking for the hourly trend to reverse direction at anytime within the next few hours, even though the day-to-day trend has been bearish even since March 6, 2023. (Moreover, when I checked the daily charts to see how long the pair has been descending, I couldn't help but notice that even the DAILY support level is at 88.05.)

AUDUSD is BELOW a RISING eight-hour baseline. I interpret this as meaning the statistical odds of the pair turning north sometime before the end of this 24-hour market cycle is extremely high.

 

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Sunday | March 19, 2023 | 10:02 PM PDT

Key measures indicate that GBPUSD is turning north now, as the eight-hour baseline implied it would do sooner or later. Twenty minutes after the hour, my charts are telling me that EURUSD has turned north as well.

AUDJPY is now at eight-hour support. So, I'm curious to see how much lower it can fall.

Had I been filling out my decision chart physically, perhaps I wouldn't have missed this opportunity to short USDCHF two hours ago (following the green "mis-colored" candlestick)...

However, doing it on "paper" every hour would just be too time consuming.

 

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AUDJPY is now at eight-hour support. So, I'm curious to see how much lower it can fall.

Monday | March 20, 2023 | 2:15 AM PDT

The Aussie-Yen pushed below even the (projected) daily price range, but of course, still has several hours left in this 24-hour market cycle to rise back above it. The pair also breached the lower end of the projected 18-hour price range at 87.27, but then pulled back from there after crawling as low at 87.13.

On the other hand, EURJPY has actually signaled that it MIGHT have reversed its bearish intraday disposition, so I will be watching to see if it actually follows through on rising above 139.65. (The one- and two-hour baselines have not yet confirmed that the above-mentioned signal is valid/legitimate).

USDJPY is in a similar situation.

 

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I use extremely aggressive trading in my NADEX demo account, which essentially means having to maintain a 100% daily success rate, to test the robustness of each new phase of NPP. And finding myself satisfied with the honing of forecast model interpretation referenced above, I returned to the NADEX platform at the start of this week to give it a go, making six trades that hopefully confirm my impression that I'm on the right track...

 

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Monday | March 20, 2023 | 4:55 AM PST

I forgot to try logging on to Deriv's platform at 4:00 this morning to confirm whether 4:30 AM PST is indeed when they initially make Forex binary option contracts available at the start of each week (as opposed to 4:00 AM).

 

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Tuesday | March 21, 2023

My email to Arjun...

Hello Arjun,

I have not been making any more changes to my charts and am simply focusing on learning to interpret them as accurately as possible, which has led to what I regard as greater and greater clarity as to (and a shifting in) how much weight I should assign to the various measures plotted on my "forecast models," and in turn, the absolute best setups for entering positions.

The interesting thing to me is that I find myself NOT inclined to record these "insights" (anecdotal observations) in my online trading journal, as I have always done in the past. I think this is because things have evolved so that it's no longer a way to help me "figure out" what works best, but is now a matter of spelling out the fundamental, unchanging "laws" of NPP that will underpin profitable trades going forward.

I am now recording these "laws" in my personal notes on my laptop so that I can confirm/verify how valid they are (or are not).

Unfortunately, I was unable to login to Deriv.com OR Nadex.com at 9 AM IST during the current 24-hour market cycle. Consequently, the nine trades I made during this second day of the week were all made BEFORE that time.

The reason I was profitable today was because, when USDCAD opted NOT to follow through on reversing direction north at typical support levels, I purchased three contracts at FIVE or TEN TIMES the previous stake after price continued downward and made contact with a LOWER support level (due to the amount of confidence I had that the rate WOULD be higher than THAT LOWER support level 60 minutes later).

In the future, I am likely to enter positions ONLY when rates drop down to (or climb up to) that same lower (or upper) support (or resistance) level.

Will D.