Abhay's charts

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Abhay,
Keep posting your forecasts and do not pay attention to the ignorants. There is about 8 more Jesuits who will always show up to light up a stake under somebody who is ahead of them.
Just post your stuff and do not waste your time trying to explain it to them .
Good luck !
Walter
 
Quote from abhay:

It is really hysterical that you don't even know how to analyze any chart or forecast. Obviously these things are not for people like you who would not apply little more sense in using the forecasts. If you say it was your first time seeing this and didnot know how to use them then it is ok...


Let me analyze the forecast :-


Before posting the forecast I had clear said give me leverage of 15 min.

1. I had a UP signal in morning form Thursday's lows, so I had gone Long on thursday at S&P 998.5 and I sold the Market near Open when S&P was 1010 (it went to 1012). For a futures trader it meant 12 points * $50 = $600 profit on 1 contract. I also recommended many people to buy options and it gave 15% profit by selling at S&P 1010.

2. I had a DOWN signal around 10:10, we clearly saw topping action around S&P 1009 - 1010 and I bought PUTS there and covered around 1 PM as per forecast which gave me approx 11 S&P points again = 11 pts * $50 = $550
PUTS gave me another 15% profit by covering when S&P @998

3. Assuming you went Long around 1 pm as per forecast to be sold around 2:30 PM then you would have lost 5 S&P pts = 5pt * $50 = $250

4. Then there was UP signal from 3:10 PM to 3:30 which would have given you another 2 S&P points = 2* $50 = $100

5. there was a DOWN signal in to close which would have given you 4 S&P points of profit = 4pt * $50 = $200

Canyou do math what you would have gained and what you would have lost ?????

I feel sorry for you that it takes you som much time to understand.

Now if anyone commenting here can show me what else gave them better profits, I will bow to them.


Please no hindsight, somethign that was published before...
More...

Oh ok so after you saw what really happened, you claim to have made a fortune even though your forecast was completely off.

Interesting,

Me thinks you are completely full of crap and did not trade a thing on Friday. Oh and the best strategy would have been to sell and wait. But doubt many people did that, although a few traders in our office did do that to individual stocks for a couple of hours.

But since you are still the supertrader, lets see your forecast for the week. I doubt you would be 3/5 right. Let's see you prove me wrong.
 
Quote from sixthbeast:

any type of forecast is based on geometry and math in general.

The market moves according to supply and demand. It's not possible to forecast a single day's events 1 week in advance.

NOT POSSIBLE.

I'm sure you won't like this, but it's reality. Come talk to me in 3 years, when you have all the money in the world.

Secondly, I have done alot with geometry, waves, fibonacci and more, and it is my conclusion that the only thing that matters is order flow. Detecting order flow.

Now that I am profitable by leaning on order flow, I would never ever tell anyone how I make money. Otherwise it would get arbed away.

Whats the use of selling something on your site when you could make millions and millions of dollars just using it.

In my opinion, people will choose money over fame. So if you want fame, you obviously have no chance at the money.

:cool:
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Exactly right.
 
Quote from theplumber:

I've forecasted http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=18612
and have been around here for a while but do YOU trade? Funny how people who don't TRADE are the ones with all the opinions , or in this case don't do their homework. Abhay's model is uncanny in how it can be so accurate. I even referenced it in one thread, only to be criticized , so be it. Tell you what, listen to the jokers who blow up http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=20880&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
or listen to yourself and explore what works and doesn't, then make your own opinion.


More...


Well said plum, and nice link (the 2nd one). Very funny stuff.

I hope he keeps posting. What is new or foreign to some can generate a lot of negativity.
 
Ok! How about this trade record....

First trade bought on 21st , 4 @7.9 Avg and sold for 9.9

Second Trade bought PUTS 2 @7.10 and sold for 8.10

Please do the math and let me know.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

08/22/2003 01247021903 Sold OEBUT 2 8.10 1,620.00 13.99 - - - 1,606.01
08/22/2003 01246956637 Bought OEBUT 2 7.10 1,420.00 13.99 - - - 1,433.99
08/22/2003 01246919126 Sold OEBIA 4 9.90 3,960.00 16.99 - - - 3,943.01
08/21/2003 01245953113 Bought OEBIA 2 7.70 1,540.00 13.99 - - - 1,553.99
08/21/2003 01245918611 Bought OEBIA 2 8.10 1,620.00 13.99 - - - 1,633.99


Please post if you believe this record. This is from Ameritrade.
 
Abhay,

Sorry about posting on your other thread. I will keep my comments on Fridays trading here from now on. Okay, I am still confused with your prediction charts. I'm not knocking the charts I'm just trying to understand their benefit. Here are some "important hints for trading" taken directly from your website:

DO'S
-Buy in multiple lots and some at intervals of 15-20 mins if you get a better price than entry point as better entry price could happen 15-20 min later or earlier.
-Buy when 3-min or 5-min MACD crossover happens well below zero line (near the time period where BUY and SELL signal is indicated on intra-day forecast chart.
-Set your profit target and exit if target achieved earlier or use Trailing Stops to protect your profit.

DON'TS
-Do not buy full position at one time.
-Do not wait tell end of forecasted trend line for exit.
-Do not trade for very short signals as some very short term peaks or valleys can be outliers or anomalies.


Now, looking at the trades you posted for Friday you would have had to break all of your trading rules in order to take those trades.
1. You would have needed to enter your whole position all at once to make the profit points you stated in your post.
2. You would have had to wait until the very end of your forecasted trend line to make the profit points you stated in your post.
3. You would have had to trade the short signals to make the profit points stated in your post.

These trades would have broken all of your trading rules, unless I'm wrong.

I am always interested in learning new ideas from other traders. Your prediction charts are interesting but I see no value in having them as of right now. It seems to me that if you just traded based on current price action and your indicators you may come out ahead.

On the other had, I can understand why you make the prediction charts. I too make point and figure charts all day long even though I don't really use them for my trading I just like to be able to look at them for trend conformation. If you could show the value of your prediction charts I will be the first in line to sign up for your website but thus far I see no value in them. And if you did make those posted trades on Friday then it looks like you broke your rules for trading, so again how did the charts help?
 
Sharp,

First things first. Trading record is the first proof.

2nd - Guidelines posted in the first post of thenew thread has the highest priority as this is what I currently use.

3rd - The methodology that youpicked from site was based on prophet.net charts and their indicators are slightly different from all other platforms and that methodology was posted about 5 months ago for people who do not have any other thing to use.

4th - My trade record and forecast match 100% , whihc was 100% supported by Market internals and support and resistance and pivot points.

5th - What my forecasts did was to give you guidance on upcoming move and add to your confidence to pull the trigger in the forecasted direction.

It was so easily visible that Market was stalling in SPX 1009 - 1011 range on Friday morning. Just hoping it could go on another 5-6 S&P points to 1015 possibly I bought only half my PUTS.

So you see I did not break the rule and bought PUTS for only half my position.


Abhay
 
Quote from abhay:

Please post if you believe this record. This is from Ameritrade. [/B]
More...

yes, I believe. Statistically if you call next day up or down you get only 50% chance to make correct prediction. To make correct call hourly statistically it's impossible so even if you were correct only 3 out of 5 days you still get my vote.
 
Okay, but just like you said that move down on Friday morning was very easy to call in real-time and therefore you would have no need for you prediction charts to back up the fact the market was going down. Just watch your indicators and the price action. After that move down (which was a good call on your charts) all of the other moves on your prediction chart are incorrect. So my main question still remains, why not just trade the current price action with your indicators? What's the use of the prediction chart? Maybe you just make the chart because you like to look at it, same as I do with my point and figure charts. That's cool. But to say that the charts can predict what will happen the next day if false. And I still think you would be better off just trading current price with you indicators.

My short term point and figure charts show that the market should continue to move lower on Monday. Does that mean that I am going to start shorting Dow futures when the ACE comes back on line tonight? NO! What that means is that I will be looking to go short but only if price action along with my indicators back up the short trade. If I get a long signal I will still take it. In my opinion this is all your prediction charts do for you. They give you some ideas of what you think may happen, but in the end you are just trading price action anyway.

Am I right???

Edit: By the way, it would only take me 5 minutes make some fake record like yours and post it here. The least you could have done was taken a screen shot from your broker and posted it here. That kind of thing offers no proof at all. Not to say you are lying, just pointing out a fact.

Edit 2: If the information on your website is out dated why don't you do something about it?
 
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