AAPL

O

oldnemesis

http://investorplace.com/2016/05/bear-of-the-day-apple-aapl/#.VzQP0tLSmig

http://investorplace.com/2016/04/aapl-stock-earnings-iphone-7-apple/#.VzQfaNLSmig

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/icahn-we-no-longer-have-a-position-in-apple.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-to-buy-apple-sto.aspx?source=iedfolrf0000001

Trade
With AAPL at 92.51
Jul 92.50/90 bear put spread for a net debit of $107
Potential yield = 143/107 = 133% in 64 days
Prob= N/A
Expectation = N/A
(not a 'statistical' trade)

Price...... Profit / Loss...... ROI %
67.50.......... 143.00........... 133.64%
76.74.......... 143.00........... 133.64%
86.46.......... 143.00........... 133.64%
90.00.......... 143.00........... 133.64%
91.43............. 0.00............... 0.00%
92.50......... (107.00)......... -100.00%
96.19......... (107.00)......... -100.00%
105.91........ (107.00)........ -100.00%
115.64........ (107.00)........ -100.00%

I don't trade AAPL. It's too subject to media and is THE favorite of the kiddie traders.

BUT

To have Apple become Zack's 'bear of the day' is quite extraordinary. This is for me quite a different trade... extremely short term..."hit and run".

:)

Note two things in the references:
AAPL is expected to bring out the Iphone7 in September.
The average holding period for stocks traded on the NYSE is 19 months.
 
Last edited:
The stock may seem weak. But don't forget about the appearing of new smartphones in the near future. Despite the disappointing results in this quarter, the company is still innovative and develops new products. I am inclined to believe that we will see a good performance on stock more than once.
 
felixbocharov said:
Sometimes I think that Apple might follow the same way as Blackberry did.
More...

We all forget that before AAPL there was PALM and Blackberry.

PALM is long gone... swallowed up in the disaster known as HP. Blackberry still exists but is losing money and trading at around $6.00 a share(BBRY).

This despite the fact that Obama has been a famous BBRY user as was Hillary Clinton when she was sec of state.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=BBRY&annual

http://www.ibtimes.com/president-barack-obama-not-allowed-use-iphone-relies-blackberry-2016-2347945

BBRY actually is planning a new smart phone release next year.

http://global.blackberry.com/en/shop.html

Here's an interesting comparison between the fortunes of AAPL and BBRY over the years:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BBRY+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}


Over the past 10 years AAPL has risen over 1000% while in the same time frame BBRY has declined by 70%.

I think I'll write a book about it.

:)

I am often reminded of the press conference where Steve Jobs pulled the first iPhone out of his pocket and claimed it was going to 'change the world'.

It did (to some extent) but BBRY was already doing everything the iPhone was promissing why didn't BBRY 'change the world' ??? What was the difference... besides hubris???

As enamored as some of us are of AAPL... nothing is guaranteed.
 
Last edited:
The average volume on the Apple dropped to 35 million shares per day in 2016 from 282 million shares per day in 2008. Such low average daily volume on the AAPL stock was last seen in 1992!!!
http://www.marketvolume.com/stocks/averagevolume.asp?s=AAPL&t=apple

The same could be said about other highly popular stocks. Below you may see the S&P 500 volume decline from early 2009 to the end of 2015 when we see some increase in volume.

20160512sp500-10year.png


Contrary, the Russell 2000 volume remained unchanged all the time - see the chart below. Only biggest market companies (listed in S&P 500, DJI and Nasdaq 100) suffered drop in volume.

20160512r2000-10year.png


When it comes to reasons behind market numbers, there always some assumptions and some speculation. On my opinion main market players have changed their investment strategies.

In 2009 cheap FED's money hit the market. The fast stock market recovery was not based on any economy factors. In 2010 when the U.S. economy was down the Nasdaq 100 and DJI completely recovered from losses. The new investments strategy - borrow and buy then borrow and buy again. Pump the price for as long as you have access to FED's cheap money. When "big guys" are only buying by using unlimited access to money, supply of shares for the sell goes down. Buying demand (fed by FED's money) was constantly pushing price of stocks up (that is why we did not have any strong correction). Reduced supply of shares for sale lead to drop in volume.

In 2014-2015 we got to hear serious talks about rate increase and the market started to show weaknesses - fund managers reduced borrowing which lead to reduce in buying. Reduced buying demand pushed market side-way. This all lead to negative performance of some fund managers. To cover outflow of the money and under the realistic risk of interest rates increase these funds managers were pushed to sell some stocks they hold. Russell 2000 index (small cap stocks) was the first to decline in June 2015. Then the market suffered two strong corrections, and we still did not seen increase in volume.

For Bull market, market need new flow of money. Traditional way would be crash it - cleanse market from the bubble stocks and drop the overpriced stocks to reasonable levels. It should free cash for new investments. FED's way would be to drop rates.

My explanation could be speculative and it calls for crash before new Bull market. Other explanation of drop in trading volume are welcome. Why do you think the trading volume on the AAPL stock dropped to the levels of 1992?
 
oldnemesis said:
We all forget that before AAPL there was PALM and Blackberry.

PALM is long gone... swallowed up in the disaster known as HP. Blackberry still exists but is losing money and trading at around $6.00 a share(BBRY).

This despite the fact that Obama has been a famous BBRY user as was Hillary Clinton when she was sec of state.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=BBRY&annual

http://www.ibtimes.com/president-barack-obama-not-allowed-use-iphone-relies-blackberry-2016-2347945

BBRY actually is planning a new smart phone release next year.

http://global.blackberry.com/en/shop.html

Here's an interesting comparison between the fortunes of AAPL and BBRY over the years:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BBRY+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}


Over the past 10 years AAPL has risen over 1000% while in the same time frame BBRY has declined by 70%.

I think I'll write a book about it.

:)

I am often reminded of the press conference where Steve Jobs pulled the first iPhone out of his pocket and claimed it was going to 'change the world'.

It did (to some extent) but BBRY was already doing everything the iPhone was promissing why didn't BBRY 'change the world' ??? What was the difference... besides hubris???

As enamored as some of us are of AAPL... nothing is guaranteed.
More...
Needless to say, someday everyone is going to go belly up, this is just the question of time.
 
sorry about viktor...just put him on your ignore list. Mostly crackpots have better places to post than on one of my trading threads.
 
felixbocharov said:
Needless to say, someday everyone is going to go belly up, this is just the question of time.
More...

Of course. "In the long run we are all dead"

14 billion years age there was the BIG BANG. Tonight I will eat at Friday's with my wife and have the chicken and shrimp. To me.. the chicken and shrimp is far more important than the Big Bang... or Apple stock.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top