AAPL

O

oldnemesis

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-iphone-sales-weaker-expected-220130131.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-results-idUSKCN0V42P9

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/setting-iphone-record-apple-forecasts-214631027.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-ceo-tim-cook-were-222946752.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/apples-iphone-sales-miss-investors-030607910.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-news-about-apple-is-so-bad-2016-01-26

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

Trade:
with AAPL at 100.00
Jul 125/130 bear call spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 170 days or 16% annualized
Prob = 83%
Expectation = .83(35) - .14(465) - .03(233) = 29.0 - 65.1 - 7 = -43.1

Price................ Profit / Loss........... ROM %
74.99...................... 35.00................. 7.50%
90.00...................... 35.00................. 7.50%
110.00.................... 35.00................. 7.50%
125.00.................... 35.00................. 7.50%
125.35...................... 0.00................. 0.00%
127.14................. (179.30).............. -35.86%
130.00................. (465.00).............. -92.50%
150.00................. (465.00).............. -92.50%
160.00................. (465.00).............. -92.50%
 
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Here are the numbers from Apple versus analyst expectations:

Q1 EPS: $3.28 versus expectations of $3.23

Q1 revenue: $75.9 versus expectations of $76.6 billion

Gross margin: 40.1% versus expectations of 39.9%

iPhone unit sales: 74.8 versus expectations of 75 million

iPhone ASP: $690 versus expectations of $674

iPad unit sales: 16.12 million versus expectations of 17.3 million

Mac unit sales: 5.31 versus expectations of 5.8 million

Q2 revenue guidance: $50-$53 billion versus expectations of $55.7 billion
 
These folks that are selling today are unreasonable, what is the point? The $100 price already included "bad" earnings, why to sell it "again"? I just don't understand.
 
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