Aapl

Spectre2007

Spectre2007

just saw a demo of MacBook Air, quite impressive, ...this company never ceases to amaze me..

will be adding this into long term accts, once the indexes give a basing out pattern.
 
That leads me to my next question......how do u know when the market has bottomed and not just paused or consolidated before
continuing it's move downward? Ultimately does it not depend on the economic fundamentals which are unknown. I've been thinking of adding strong stocks waiting for the same signal but with subprime & credit card debt problems looming the bottom may be a long time coming.
 
The problem here is that we might be looking at the beginning of a serious bear market.

I think the final nail in the coffin would be if the market sells off after an aggressive rate cut. It does not have to be immediate watching the lower highs on the daily should be enough guidance.

I would be very careful about dip buying, even strong stocks, with a start like the one we have witnessed in 2008.

Almost everyone is guiding lower, it looks like the financials got a long way to go before rebounding and don't even get me started in housing.

It does not look pretty, to say the least.

Anek
 
I would say short puts a little at a time at a price you wouldnt mind owning the stock and then if it gets put to you great if not you make a little money in the mean time until you think you want to get in
 
I would say short puts a little at a time at a price you wouldnt mind owning the stock and then if it gets put to you great if not you make a little money in the mean time until you think you want to get in
 
I would say short puts a little at a time at a price you wouldnt mind owning the stock and then if it gets put to you great if not you make a little money in the mean time until you think you want to get in
 
I think the final nail in the coffin would be if the market sells off after an aggressive rate cut"

i think it will do just that...market sold off after the last cut...this financial mess has to become more transparent before markets stabilize...I think a lot of people are satrting to ponder about insane car loans,credit card debt etc...the next shoes to drop?
 
Quote from Anekdoten:

The problem here is that we might be looking at the beginning of a serious bear market.

I think the final nail in the coffin would be if the market sells off after an aggressive rate cut. It does not have to be immediate watching the lower highs on the daily should be enough guidance.

I would be very careful about dip buying, even strong stocks, with a start like the one we have witnessed in 2008.

Almost everyone is guiding lower, it looks like the financials got a long way to go before rebounding and don't even get me started in housing.

It does not look pretty, to say the least.

Anek
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Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.


CAPM.gif


The general idea behind CAPM is that investors need to be compensated in two ways: time value of money and risk. The time value of money is represented by the risk-free (rf) rate in the formula and compensates the investors for placing money in any investment over a period of time.

The other half of the formula represents risk and calculates the amount of compensation the investor needs for taking on additional risk. This is calculated by taking a risk measure (beta) that compares the returns of the asset to the market over a period of time and to the market premium (Rm-rf).

The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the rate on a risk-free security plus a risk premium. If this expected return does not meet or beat the required return, then the investment should not be undertaken. The security market line plots the results of the CAPM for all different risks (betas).

Using the CAPM model and the following assumptions, we can compute the expected return of a stock: if the risk-free rate is 3%, the beta (risk measure) of the stock is 2 and the expected market return over the period is 10%, the stock is expected to return 17% (3%+2(10%-3%)).

So, what´s your risk premium assumption, Anekdoten ? I suppose when you are talking about "bear market", you ´re talking of the broad indices or in general about certain asset classes ? Specify ! Thanx !:)
 
Consumer debt as a percent of income is not at outrageous levels. You can check on the fed's website for DSR and FOR numbers.

In fact, it is down in q307 from q207.

The increase in those two metrics in since 2004 over previous 5 years is simply because of increase in home ownership.

The bottom line is as long as their is a underlying bid for the housing market, domestic (developers, flippers etc) or foreigners, I don't think this debt level is sufficient to cause concern.
 
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