AAPL Trades (09/18/12-04/19/13)

[cactiman]

AAPL Trades (09/18/12-04/19/13)

Total Margin: $25,000.00 (50 contracts)
Total Max Loss: $11,140.00
Total Max Credit: $13,860.00 - $150.00 commissions = $13,710.00
Total Max Gain: 123.07% over 7 months

8 Jan 700/695 Bull Put Spreads
2 Feb 700/695 Bull Put Spreads
13 Apr 700/695 Bull Put Spreads
5 Apr 670/665 Bull Put Spreads
2 Apr 650/645 Bull Put Spreads
3 Apr 635/630 Bull Put Spreads
3 Apr 610/605 Bull Put Spreads
3 Apr 600/595 Bull Put Spreads
3 Apr 590/585 Bull Put Spreads
8 Apr 580/575 Bull Put Spreads


-January 2013-

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 01/18/13
09/18/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 JAN 13 700/695 PUT at 2.50 LMT (AAPL at 699.25)
Break Even: 697.50
Max Loss: $750.00
Cost of Trade: credit $750.00 - $9.00 = $741.00
Net % Gain: +98.80% in 4 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 01/18/13
09/21/12: SELL -5 VERTICAL AAPL 100 JAN 13 700/695 PUT at 2.37 LMT (AAPL at 704.85)
Break Even: 697.63
Max Loss: $1315.00
Cost of Trade: credit $1185.00 - $15.00 = $1170.00
Net % Gain: +88.97% in 4 months


-February 2013-

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 02/15/13
09/24/12: SELL -2 VERTICAL AAPL 100 FEB 13 700/695 PUT at 2.70 LMT (AAPL at 687.75)
Break Even: 697.30
Max Loss: $460.00
Cost of Trade: credit $540.00 - $6.00 = $534.00
Net % Gain: +116.09% in 5 months


-April 2013-

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/02/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.03 LMT (AAPL at 656.25)
Break Even: 696.97
Max Loss: $591.00
Cost of Trade: credit $909.00 - $9.00 = $900.00
Net % Gain: +152.28% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/08/12: SELL -1 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.20 LMT (AAPL at 642.37)
Break Even: 696.80
Max Loss: $180.00
Cost of Trade: credit $320.00 - $3.00 = $317.00
Net % Gain: +176.11% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/08/12: SELL -2 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.23 LMT (AAPL at 639.76)
Break Even: 696.77
Max Loss: $354.00
Cost of Trade: credit $646.00 - $6.00 = $640.00
Net % Gain: +180.79% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/09/12: SELL -1 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.35 LMT (AAPL at 630.66)
Break Even: 696.65
Max Loss: $165.00
Cost of Trade: credit $335.00 - $3.00 = $332.00
Net % Gain: +201.21% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/09/12: SELL -1 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.42 LMT (AAPL at 625.59)
Break Even: 696.58
Max Loss: $158.00
Cost of Trade: credit $342.00 - $3.00 = $339.00
Net % Gain: +214.56% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/11/12: SELL -2 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.35 LMT (AAPL at 631.97)
Break Even: 696.65
Max Loss: $330.00
Cost of Trade: credit $670.00 - $6.00 = $664.00
Net % Gain: +201.21% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 700.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/16/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 700/695 PUT at 3.17 LMT (AAPL at 648.30)
Break Even: 696.83
Max Loss: $549.00
Cost of Trade: credit $951.00 - $9.00 = $942.00
Net % Gain: +171.58% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 635.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/16/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 635/630 PUT at 2.58 LMT (AAPL at 632.50)
Break Even: 632.42
Max Loss: $726.00
Cost of Trade: credit $774.00 - $9.00 = $765.00
Net % Gain: +105.37% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 670.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/23/12: SELL -5 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 670/665 PUT at 3.05 LMT (AAPL at 626.32)
Break Even: 666.95
Max Loss: $975.00
Cost of Trade: credit $1525.00 - $15.00 = $1510.00
Net % Gain: +154.87% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 650.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/23/12: SELL -2 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 650/645 PUT at 2.82 LMT (AAPL at 626.14)
Break Even: 647.18
Max Loss: $436.00
Cost of Trade: credit $564.00 - $6.00 = $558.00
Net % Gain: +127.98% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 610.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/26/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 610/605 PUT at 2.57 LMT (AAPL at 608.38)
Break Even: 607.43
Max Loss: $729.00
Cost of Trade: credit $771.00 - $9.00 = $762.00
Net % Gain: +104.53% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 600.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/26/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 600/595 PUT at 2.52 LMT (AAPL at 601.78)
Break Even: 597.48
Max Loss: $744.00
Cost of Trade: credit $756.00 - $9.00 = $747.00
Net % Gain: +100.40% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 590.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
10/26/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 590/585 PUT at 2.52 LMT (AAPL at 592.81)
Break Even: 587.48
Max Loss: $744.00
Cost of Trade: credit $756.00 - $9.00 = $747.00
Net % Gain: +100.40% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 590.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
11/02/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 580/575 PUT at 2.52 LMT (AAPL at 581.80)
Break Even: 577.48
Max Loss: $744.00
Cost of Trade: credit $756.00 - $9.00 = $747.00
Net % Gain: +100.40% in 6 months

AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group)
[Bull Put Spread]
Bet: AAPL Closes at 590.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
11/02/12: SELL -5 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 580/575 PUT at 2.62 LMT (AAPL at 574.96)
Break Even: 577.38
Max Loss: $1,190.00
Cost of Trade: credit $1,310.00 - $15.00 = $1,295.00
Net % Gain: +108.82% in 6 months

 

[cactiman]

11/02/12 Chart

 

[cactiman]

My goal of course is to make more than I lose on this block of trades.

If AAPL goes to 700 or above before January 18th, and stays there through April 19th, I'll win on all of them.
If AAPL stays at 580 or below through April 19th, I'll lose on all of them.

But it will probably be much more complicated.
I'll explain my thinking along the way, as I close/let expire each of these 50 Spreads.

We'll see if I end up in the $+ or $- column at the end of the day.



**There is a typo on each of the last 2 trades:
Bet: AAPL Closes at 590.00 or Higher on 04/19/13
On both should read:
Bet: AAPL Closes at 580.00 or Higher on 04/19/13

 

[mutluit]

How does Apple do in China and India...

 

[cactiman]

Quote from mutluit:

How does Apple do in China and India...

Probably OK with the rich people, and not at all with the poor people!
I'm a Trend Trader, so I see that as just one ingredient in the technical/fundamental/emotional soup, which is reflected in the price action.

 

[mutluit]

Quote from cactiman:
Probably OK with the rich people, and not at all with the poor people!
I'm a Trend Trader, so I see that as just one ingredient in the technical/fundamental/emotional soup, which is reflected in the price action.

I have no idea how Apple does in the said 2 biggest countries of the world by population, hence my asking.
IMO, Apple should not repeat the failures of RIMM by being so exclusive, elitist, for the riches only etc...
If Apple can do well in these 2 markets too then Apple for sure will grow much bigger..., ie. then Apple's market capitalisation
has room for another 25% to 50% growth IMHO...

 

[cactiman]

Bought 1 AAPL April 545 Call & 1 AAPL April 600 Call this morning.

AAPL Long Term Uptrend still in place.
AAPL has gone down for 7 weeks, and still hasn't taken out the last Higher Low.
There's 23 weeks (till April 19th) for it to go back up.
Seems likely to me...

IMO:
Good news about the Fiscal Cliff will trigger the next rally.
How the politicians will kick the can down the road I don't know, but think they'll find a way - master slither-ers that they are!

 

[cactiman]

If AAPL touches 500 and closes below the last Higher Low (517.58 on this chart - it used to be 519.95! - other charts show it as 522.18!!) the Long Term Uptrend (since March 2009) will be over.
Until that happens the Uptrend is still in place.
We'll see what Mr. Market decides.

 

[shfly]

Quote from cactiman:

If AAPL touches 500 and closes below the last Higher Low (517.58 on this chart - it used to be 519.95! - other charts show it as 522.18!!) the Long Term Uptrend (since March 2009) will be over.
Until that happens the Uptrend is still in place.
We'll see what Mr. Market decides.

That low from May-12 is probably in play...Better yet, a sharp break below 500 would get the talking heads to...really talk

And then a nice bounce for the next few months? To 600+'ish? )Massive right shoulder...before the next roll over

Or just daytrade this sucker

After that gap down in Sept-12, and not even a bounce back, should have been a strong warning for longs...

 

[cactiman]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama wants to start talks with Republicans next week seeking a compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff", according to a report from AP. Obama will invite congressional leaders to the White House for the talks, according to the report. Obama is scheduled to make a statement on the fiscal cliff shortly after 1 p.m Eastern. It will be his first policy remarks since winning re-election on Tuesday.