AAPL post-MacWorld technical analysis

AAPL:

  • Up

    Votes: 9 47.4%

  • Down

    Votes: 6 31.6%

  • Sideways

    Votes: 2 10.5%

  • Who Knows?

    Votes: 2 10.5%
  • Total voters
    19
  • Poll closed .
R

Raul641

Hi,

I've just written up a general technical analysis of AAPL. My theory is that it is setting up for a bounce on solid support at 125-130, based on prior support and the lower edge of a long term channel:

http://www.economaton.com/markets-trading/aapl-bounce-after-macworld/

I'm particularly interested in what to make of the declining volume activity on the daily chart there as it approached the channel line. The falling volume indicates that people aren't interested in those prices as much, but why? Because the panic sellers are sold out, or because nobody's buying any more?

The fact that it seems to have stabilized around the bottom seems like a positive sign. Perhaps someone with more experience than me can offer some insight?

Cheers,
R
 
good article-if mkt stays down then appl going down-poor people do not buy computers ipods i phones etc etc
rev streams drying up-maybe overseas will strengthen finances but their mkts are inflated and ready to pop-was in spain and dublin this last spring big bubble! so a fake out in appl short rally and then back down seems most logical-would be nice if whole mkt sold off and we could all get back in at the bottom
 
AAPL's products are all luxury/high end prestige items, though - how much would that be affected by a mild recession? Rich people will still be rich, and still buy electronic status toys...
 
Quote from Raul641:

http://www.economaton.com/markets-trading/aapl-bounce-after-macworld/
More...

WTF?? Why is your site trying to install some certificates?

"- The server's name "www.economaton.com" does not match the certificate's name "zodqa-host-000.nks.net". Somebody may be trying to eavesdrop on you.
- The root certificate from "zodqa-host-000.nks.net" is not known...
- The certificate for "zodqa-host-000.nks.net" expired Oct 25 02:27:03 2007 GMT. The webmaster should update the certificate(s)."
 
Quote from Raul641:

Hi,

I've just written up a general technical analysis of AAPL. My theory is that it is setting up for a bounce on solid support at 125-130, based on prior support and the lower edge of a long term channel:

http://www.economaton.com/markets-trading/aapl-bounce-after-macworld/

I'm particularly interested in what to make of the declining volume activity on the daily chart there as it approached the channel line. The falling volume indicates that people aren't interested in those prices as much, but why? Because the panic sellers are sold out, or because no body's buying any more?

The fact that it seems to have stabilized around the bottom seems like a positive sign. Perhaps someone with more experience than me can offer some insight?

Cheers,
R
More...


Please make the charts visible, there is something wrong when viewing , the browser shows a broken icon.

AAPL is consolidating here with a base, hence the volume dries up. It sure has not been able to penetrate this 128-134 area. Had it not had support back in Sept 2007 here it would have gone straight down to 120 where it would have tons of support.

The stock tried to run several times but has been sold hard by the bears when it reaches 134-135 and that has been a constant battle.

One thing is certain AAPL is not going to be 130 stock forever, and one of these days buyers will breakthrough this 200 day at 140-144 and fill the gap. Short will be blown to pieces and bears scattering into the woodwork.
 
Hi,

Sorry about the certificate/image issue - bug on the server. I fixed it. It should work now with no certificates and images should display correctly.

day: is this volume dropoff typical of consolidation phases? How do we get a read on how long the phase will last, and are there any signs that will tell us when it is coming to a close (either up or down)?
 
Quote from Raul641:

Hi,

Sorry about the certificate/image issue - bug on the server. I fixed it. It should work now with no certificates and images should display correctly.

day: is this volume dropoff typical of consolidation phases? How do we get a read on how long the phase will last, and are there any signs that will tell us when it is coming to a close (either up or down)?
More...


AAPL is working its way slighty up on decreasing volume, with little bit base forming and horizontal work it should be ready to breakout to the upside. It shows the sellers are getting exhausted. There are lots of shorts under 200 day MA and they start selling when it gets to 135-136 area. These are the same asses that took down the stock market last month.

No one knows for sure, but it will get back over 140-144 area in due time.
 
Hrm. I was thinking it could be a flag - that dropoff was pretty sharp.

Any thoughts on why it is/isn't a flag? I'm no expert, so any advice on what I'm missing is appreciated.

Cheers.
R
 
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