AAPL Jan 2009 75.0000 Put

Quote from dmo:

I'm also skeptical that this was insider trading. Monday and Tuesday these puts closed at an IV of 73%. Today they closed at 64%. .03 bid at .04. Not exactly characteristic of the mad rush to buy at any price you'd expect to see if this volume was generated by folks who knew something. Looks more like it was generated by sellers.
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I wasnt thinking "insider trading" per se that would be so obvious even the inept SEC would see it.

I read the original post as if the poster implied a he and or others bot em already and they were secretly in the know. Sometimes you see that sort of rubbish on ET.
 
I believe not a word posted after the fact and only 49% posted before.

And you'll spend 2 million trying to make 1 million that way.
 
Quote from xflat2186:

I wasnt thinking "insider trading" per se that would be so obvious even the inept SEC would see it.

I read the original post as if the poster implied a he and or others bot em already and they were secretly in the know. Sometimes you see that sort of rubbish on ET.
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Nah, I was just throwing out there that this put could potentially pop if people start panic selling tomorrow. I don't even trade options.
 
]I wasnt thinking "insider trading" per se that would be so obvious even the inept SEC would see it.
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At the SEC, it's the blind leading those who want them to be blind.

How do you spell M-A-D-O-F-F ?

:)
 
Quote from xflat2186:

I wasnt thinking "insider trading" per se that would be so obvious even the inept SEC would see it.

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I would hope so - but I have a lot of confidence in the ineptness of the SEC (or their willing blindness perhaps). I've definitely seen cases where IV suddenly jumped 10 percentage points a day for a few days preceding a announcement that sent prices soaring.

I absolutely agree that volume alone means nothing. But I do think that watching IV can occasionally give a clue. It can certainly tell you something about the nature of a volume increase - Whether it was generated by buyers, sellers, or just two-sided trade.
 
Most likely they were "buy to close" there is a decent chunk of OI.

The SEC is inept in some areas and not too bad in others. I remember several occasions when I was a MM where there was obvious front running by insiders in options and they SEC busted them.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

Those puts were never all that cheap, and didn't even get ITM at the bottom of today's AH spike. AAPL reports in seven days - this could be a hell of an entertaining ride.
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Agreed. If volatility calms down by the earnings date or in connection with the earnings (a big if), consider the long straddle if you like to gamble a little. I thought of doing this when that hormone imbalance baloney came out, but vol has been too high for that kind of play. Pancreatic cancer is a virtual death sentence. Jobs is not coming back. So there could be another lurch in the price when the real truth comes out.

Those are just my trading thoughts in connection with this. It is of course very sad for Jobs and his loved ones.
 
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