Aapl, Goog, Eln, Sndk, ...

Hi DeltaSpread,

yes, I follow GOOG, which is a phantastic story!

I have attached a chart for you. Long since 486.
Stop is currently at 484.
I am using a 10 day grid, with 2 points resolution.
For a straddle the GOOG is currently too bullish.

I have to make checks on ICE and NYX. Both stocks seem to be very strong as well. ICE has risk below 124. NYX looks fine above 101.

Regards,

gg12
 

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The volatility of AAPL options is far above the vola of the AAPL stock.

AAPL options = 47.59
Historical 30 days vola = 29.64
Ratio >1.60

That means that AAPL options are relatively expensive. See attached graphics (source ivolatility.com)
 

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Symbol Expiration Date Description Qty Closing Price Multiplier Value Value
QAAAR 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 90 C -1 1.936356 100 -193.64
QAAMP 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 80 P -1 1.484181 100 -148.42
Total -342.06

Theoretical Profit (Position is not closed yet)
Straddle Sold 405.00
Settle Value -342.06
Profit 62.94, +15.54%
 
Attached Graphics shows how a potential strategy on Appl could be designed (be aware that strategies in trading only work temporarly and have to be daily checked and eventually adjusted to new market conditions):

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Buy in direction of the trend based on 2 point closing price grid.
Cash profit if 10 points are reached (equals 8 points gain: 10 - 2).
Stop if trend is broken by 2 points.
All based on end of day closing values.
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Be aware of gaps and always place stops immediately when opening positions.
Strictly limit your risk!
Start trading with 1 share if necessary to train your discipline.
Follow the market and Appl daily.
Low commissions keep trading costs down.

We have 18 trades. 4 were stopped out with loss. 6 made the profit by reaching 10 points, with a gain of 8 points (10 - 2).

Waves are 231352251582614154.
Max. Profits are 01-114004-14404-12-142 = 26 units (a 2 points).
 

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I had massive problems with my trading stile today.

I had to close my strangle because Aapl jumped up 8.45% and I was not prepared for that move.

I closed the 80 Put at 0.44
I was liquidated on the Call at 4.90

In total it's 5.34 what I had payed today (not included commisions).
I opened that straddle at 4.05 and faced a quite significant loss.

Feel like a novice... But it's my fault!!!!

PS: Because I never give up I opened a new strangle:

-1 C95 Jan 2.20
-1 P90 Jan 1.90
Total 4.10
 

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I need to be more careful with trending stocks.

I had to buy back the Straddle for a lot of money yesterday. Appl continued to raise and I didn't want to speculate on a chance in trend (and risk unlimited money):

C 415
P 125
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T 540

To respect the trend now and I am long:

+1 Call 100 Jan bought at 105

Symbol Expiration Date Description Qty Closing Price Multiplier Value Value
QAAAT 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 100 C 1 1.80714 100 180.71
 

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I have attached a chart of Aaal which shows the waves on a 2 point grid (closing prices).

Thie trend is up based on this view.

The waves are:
231352251582614154?


The systems is S151:
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Entry 1
PT 5
Exit -1 Trailing on 2 point grid (closing prices)
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Result is 26 points in 18 trades

Current state is long from 84 (if profit target is not applied)
TS is 94 on a closing base
 

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