AAPL Earnings.

curious, was the fly you suggested just a suggestion, or was it an actual trade you had on as well?

lol no. I have a "China Mobile" thread where I state that China Mobile released bogus numbers on the iPhone pre-order. Obviously I would not be long into the release of the forward look. I don't take price-bets into earnings, only vola. I did go long just under 504 in the AH, but I was simply pointing out that a delta-fly was a better R/R than the outright long in D1.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?p=3934126
 
lol no. I have a "China Mobile" thread where I state that China Mobile released bogus numbers on the iPhone pre-order. Obviously I would not be long into the release of the forward look. I don't take price-bets into earnings, only vola. I did go long just under 504 in the AH, but I was simply pointing out that a delta-fly was a better R/R than the outright long in D1.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?p=3934126

ah okay, i thought that was the case but was just double checking.
 
ah okay, i thought that was the case but was just double checking.

Yeah, I was simply proposing a preferable risk. The AAPL 2-lot fly structuring was a $2500 risk against $5000 in shares. I bot some stock at 503.88 in a retirement account, but I am nearly flat mkt here other than a large GOOG bear position in an OPM account. I am personally long ICPT from ~281 and 50 lot SPX in short gamma/short delta:

14e9ibt.png
 
AAPL at 500ish (between 503 and 504). Nailed with precision. I would not be surprised if ET has now become bearish, which would mean to me a bounce up or close to end of down move in AH.

After correctly forecasting the 50 points drop, the forecast of the AH bottom was also right as AAPl is now trading at 512/513 area in premarket.
 
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