AAPL Earnings

AAPL Wednesday Open ?

  • AAPL up >= 5%

    Votes: 7 41.2%

  • AAPL down <= 5%

    Votes: 6 35.3%

  • AAPL no change, screws option players

    Votes: 4 23.5%
  • Total voters
    17
Quote from cdcaveman:

interesting.. the lock that steve put on the market for his culture and just general feelings about technology or so tied up in the business there is no way this mammoth of a money making machine is going to do some bomb drop like a gmcr or cmg or any other pretty girl stock.. this company literally represents the deepest sense of entrepreneurialship in the united states in my opinion.. . you can't go wrong with an Apple.. everyone now knows.. its like muscle memory now for people.. they want a computer.. they first look at Apples.
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I know they won't drop like CMG or something. Maybe I just don't get it since I am allergic to their products, and I never look at them.

Also, I know I didn't bring it up earlier, but if I were a long term investor I would be a little bit worried that iPhone sales were down. Even though iPad 2 sales were up, 'new' iPad sales were down -- what if the same happens with the iPhone 5? What if people just don't like new, post-Jobs products? What if the lull in iPhone sales don't represent a lull, but a secular decline in popularity of the iPhone?
 
Quote from hft_boy:

I know they won't drop like CMG or something. Maybe I just don't get it since I am allergic to their products, and I never look at them.

Also, I know I didn't bring it up earlier, but if I were a long term investor I would be a little bit worried that iPhone sales were down. Even though iPad 2 sales were up, 'new' iPad sales were down -- what if the same happens with the iPhone 5? What if people just don't like new, post-Jobs products? What if the lull in iPhone sales don't represent a lull, but a secular decline in popularity of the iPhone?
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I agree and I am concerned the IP5 may be shaped like a c*ck. That's the rumor. If so, I am out.
 
Quote from atticus:

I agree and I am concerned the IP5 may be shaped like a c*ck. That's the rumor. If so, I am out.
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hahah.. hell alot of the population of apple goers are homo's or mainstream american consumers.. maybe they want a co&k shaped phone to get f8ck with.. seems like america has grown to like being a power bottom.. haha jk jk jk half serious
 
i read the steve jobs biography.. theres years of products already on the map before he died.. and i seriously do believe everyone is hooked.. you buy one product next thing you know you have all of them.. thats momentum is going to hold the customer base for a while... untill the opportunity cost of changing products is great!

my position is i own not one Apple product!
 
Quote from atticus:

Supply is the bottleneck. Now imagine people like me who have MacPros, retina MBP on the way; MBAir, IP4S and an iPad; but don't like carrying a legal pad around with me to surf. I guarantee that the iPad "mini" will sell out in all configs within days and will not see elasticity in the channel for months. It will be their most successful product launch in history (units). The will sell for massive premiums on ebay.

Unless they sold >1 mil to GenEd then I guess I can't buy the bear-case on the iPad. The iPad bears are certainly contrarians. The IP4/S is THE reason for the miss. Unfortunately, you can't manage that cyclicality. Woe to the bear who shorts it here looking for more than 3-5%, which I don't think you'll get.

If I were a macro/equity fundamental guy I would be in this thing at 30% of portfolio or at least spread the shares long against Nas.
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Atty, I'd like to hear if you have more points for the bull and bear cases for AAPL. Yeah I agree if they keep on the current fundamental trajectory this is XMAS in Jul, and technicals are still supportive ex global macro concerns. All old, priced in news though IMO. I suppose I'm looking for an interesting POV outside simple top and bot line growth/miss.
 
Quote from cactiman:

Pretty good call there S2007S!
:cool:
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After losing on my earnings butterfly for not leaving myself enough time to be right.. i immediately put on another butterfly for next week.. and its working good for me.. i knew the dang thing would gravitate back up.. just not within moments after earnings.. or at least i realized that in hindsight quick enough to position myself to recoup some loss..

my earnings butterfly
BOT 1 AAPL JUL 27 '12 + 600 - (2)630 + 615 Call Butterfly 2.10 USD SMART JUL 23 15:14:41

my earnings credit spread
SLD 2 AAPL JUL 27 '12 - 545 + 550 Put Bear Spread 0.36 USD SMART JUL 23 15:15:13

my post earnings fly
BOT 1 AAPL AUG 03 '12 + 570 - (2)610 + 590 Call Butterfly 6.82 USD SMART JUL 26 10:07:05

my post earnings credit spread open and close
SLD 2 AAPL AUG 03 '12 - 545 + 550 Put Bear Spread .300 USD SMART JUL 26 09:58:12

BOT 2 AAPL AUG 03 '12 - 545 + 550 Put Bear Spread 0.10 USD SMART JUL 27 13:06:48


34 dollars after commision on a 1000 bucks is pretty good for a two full trading days on a credit spread.. three percent.. idk it never seems right risking 1000 to make 34 bucks..
 
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