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AAPL Earnings
- Thread starter FreakofNature
- Start date
Quote from iceman1:
who was the genius who "saw" a so-called "cup and handle" - which if my memory serves me correctly from my CME classes that is a bullish pattern!
brilliant
LOL - too funny
Based on AAPL's past behavior and the chart, I thought the probability for AAPL to go up was higher than for it to go down.
But it went down. So I may have to eat a loss. It won't be the first time, or the last.
Though AAPL could still creep back up to 600 by August 17th, we'll see.
Funny though, I looked and don't see your prediction AAPL would go down anywhere in this thread.
Did I miss it?
Earnings are indeed a gamble but cyclicals are not.
Let the bearish cyclical season attack, should last until September/October, sometimes a little early, then load up on this behemoth and hold past Xmas reports, dump before the summer begins, don't be fooled by the summer rally, that usually fails, and rinse and repeat the process.
Disregard the above if you see SPX take previous year lows in any given year, that usually is a call for a new Bear Market.
We've been in a bull market since 2009/March regardless of what's coming out of Europe or the Economic reports, price does not lie, reports do.
Let the bearish cyclical season attack, should last until September/October, sometimes a little early, then load up on this behemoth and hold past Xmas reports, dump before the summer begins, don't be fooled by the summer rally, that usually fails, and rinse and repeat the process.
Disregard the above if you see SPX take previous year lows in any given year, that usually is a call for a new Bear Market.
We've been in a bull market since 2009/March regardless of what's coming out of Europe or the Economic reports, price does not lie, reports do.
Quote from atticus:
AAPL at 570 is XMAS in July. I don't know anyone who upgrades their IP mere weeks (8?) before an expected rollout (announcement) so you'd think the analysts would have more reasonable expectations. $600 will look cheap in 6 months.
I'm not so sure about that. Everybody is going on about how they beat estimates on the iPad ... If you look at the conference call, turns out that they didn't really beat estimates on the iPad -- estimates were 16M, and they sold 17M, but 1M of those were to educational institutions. Then again, I may be biased since I have a short position. Once they announce the iPhone 5, though, it will indeed look cheap.
Quote from hft_boy:
I'm not so sure about that. Everybody is going on about how they beat estimates on the iPad ... If you look at the conference call, turns out that they didn't really beat estimates on the iPad -- estimates were 16M, and they sold 17M, but 1M of those were to educational institutions. Then again, I may be biased since I have a short position. Once they announce the iPhone 5, though, it will indeed look cheap.
Obviously they missed on the whole, but your logic fails me. Did they miss or beat on iPad? Does the Ed sector not pay for these? I assume the margins are sufficient even assuming the Ed iPad's are subsidized.
I have no short position in AAPL.
Quote from atticus:
Obviously they missed on the whole, but your logic fails me. Did they miss or beat on iPad? Does the Ed sector not pay for these? I assume the margins are sufficient even assuming the Ed iPad's are subsidized.
I have no short position in AAPL.
Yes, they do pay for them, obviously. Just saying that it's not exactly a sign of ... er .. organically growing customer demand. You are probably be right that it makes no difference who buys them as long as somebody is buying them, it just occurred to me as I was reading the transcript that maybe one shouldn't assume that the education sector will continue buying iPads in the future.
Quote from hft_boy:
Yes, they do pay for them, obviously. Just saying that it's not exactly a sign of ... er .. organically growing customer demand. You are probably be right that it makes no difference who buys them as long as somebody is buying them, it just occurred to me as I was reading the transcript that maybe one shouldn't assume that the education sector will continue buying iPads in the future.
funny thing is the first computer i ever used was an apple 2... I would think the room for growth in the education sector is hugh.. these tablet computers are the way of the future.. yet i own not one apple product haha...
i was long at earnings as you all know.. otherwise i have no positions
Quote from hft_boy:
Yes, they do pay for them, obviously. Just saying that it's not exactly a sign of ... er .. organically growing customer demand. You are probably be right that it makes no difference who buys them as long as somebody is buying them, it just occurred to me as I was reading the transcript that maybe one shouldn't assume that the education sector will continue buying iPads in the future.
Supply is the bottleneck. Now imagine people like me who have MacPros, retina MBP on the way; MBAir, IP4S and an iPad; but don't like carrying a legal pad around with me to surf. I guarantee that the iPad "mini" will sell out in all configs within days and will not see elasticity in the channel for months. It will be their most successful product launch in history (units). The will sell for massive premiums on ebay.
Unless they sold >1 mil to GenEd then I guess I can't buy the bear-case on the iPad. The iPad bears are certainly contrarians. The IP4/S is THE reason for the miss. Unfortunately, you can't manage that cyclicality. Woe to the bear who shorts it here looking for more than 3-5%, which I don't think you'll get.
If I were a macro/equity fundamental guy I would be in this thing at 30% of portfolio or at least spread the shares long against Nas.
Quote from atticus:
Supply is the bottleneck. Now imagine people like me who have MacPros, retina MBP on the way; MBAir, IP4S and an iPad; but don't like carrying a legal pad around with me to surf. I guarantee that the iPad "mini" will sell out in all configs within days and will not see elasticity in the channel for months. It will be their most successful product launch in history (units). The will sell for massive premiums on ebay.
Unless they sold >1 mil to GenEd then I guess I can't buy the bear-case on the iPad. The iPad bears are certainly contrarians. The IP4/S is THE reason for the miss. Unfortunately, you can't manage that cyclicality. Woe to the bear who shorts it here looking for more than 3-5%, which I don't think you'll get.
If I were a macro/equity fundamental guy I would be in this thing at 30% of portfolio or at least spread the shares long against Nas.
interesting.. the lock that steve put on the market for his culture and just general feelings about technology or so tied up in the business there is no way this mammoth of a money making machine is going to do some bomb drop like a gmcr or cmg or any other pretty girl stock.. this company literally represents the deepest sense of entrepreneurialship in the united states in my opinion.. . you can't go wrong with an Apple.. everyone now knows.. its like muscle memory now for people.. they want a computer.. they first look at Apples.