AAPL crashing.. this is really scary..

Quote from Batman28:

S2007S how confident are you AAPL could gain tomorrow?50%? 80%? it's a very long streak down run it's had.. one of the longest on Nasdaq this year..
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I cant place a % of how confident I am, tomorrow morning we could wake up and find out that another bank is going to have another huge write down or maybe even face bankruptcy. I do think though the markets are ready for a bounce, most will be taking advantage of it to sell.
 
Quote from Batman28:
plus when I say it's scarey, it's because I haven't seen sell offs like this across the board for a long time..
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Yea August 2007 feels like it was ages ago :p
 
Quote from makloda:

Yea August 2007 feels like it was ages ago :p
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most of the stocks I look at hardly moved relative to historic distasters.. take a look at AAPL in August..
 
Nonsense the economy and jobs market is in good shape.
We will trade down to 12,5-600 or so because of technicals.

HIGH PE's will pay the price. when we get 12,600 or so.. start the motor ...

a lot of money can be made till the end of the year.

pick most solid co's and get ready to buy
 
Quote from makloda:

LOL What a ridiculous analysis. You have no idea what you're talking about.
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Not so rediculous makloda, but I do see or suppose that we made that ceiling because of the last leg up in china. They had brushed off august and jumped 30% amid fears of a global slowdown. Did we not follow, or do you feel we led? I really have no clue why we had rallied other than the cut. but I am not an economist. I would love to hear why we have rallied other than the 50 cut. anyone, anyone?
 
Quote from Batman28:
most of the stocks I look at hardly moved relative to historic distasters.. take a look at AAPL in August..
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There were severe selloffs in many leading sectors in early/mid August. Depends on what you look at. Oils, Agricultural, Industrials, Mining/Commodities, Financials, REITs all got a solid hair cut. Tech fared a lot better back then. That's why everybody piled into it as a "safe haven" in Sept/Oct I guess.
 
2 things here to watch.

If the china bubble pops

And if the NYC area real estate market starts to melt down because of wall street cut backs.

The housing market in this area is still siting high didnt miss a beat. if it melts

you will see a HUGE amount of sub prime fallout
 
Quote from PARACLESE:
I really have no clue why we had rallied other than the cut. but I am not an economist.
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Oh of course we rallied because of the cut. But S27027 was saying that without the cut we'd trading at Dow 12000 (or whatever). That's about as astute as me saying "WITHOUT SUBPRIME WE'D BE TRADING AT DOW 16,000 NOW". That's all hubris. The cut is what it is and subprime is what it is. Any analysis where we would/could/should be trading hypothetically is misleading and a waste of time IMHO.

Regarding a bounce... Examples for a good bounce foundation:

- Solid sell off in the morning, then a reversal at bottom with VIX making new 52w high and a strong close in all indexes and sectors on monster volume (huge hammer candle stick)

or

- 2-3 medium percentage up days with the VIX rising (bullish divergence)

On the other hand, a close below 1370 on the monthly (!) SP500 chart IMO buries this bull market for the medium term. Until then, this is a range bound side ways market with many ailing sectors as far as I am concerned.
 
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