AAPL contrarian play
- Thread starter islands111
- Start date
just buying calls made sense as well, in hindsight.
I made a forum thread citing that since everyone was saying it would sell off at iphone release, that perhaps it wouldn't, or it would at least superficially. but my call was for lack of volatility, pinned around 125.. so that i was wrong about. at least i didn't sell straddles - i made a point that the payoff on that trade isn't worth the risk.
regardless, i picked up a few calls around 121 before the runup the day of iphone release, figuring that sell the news was actually 'buy the news' in this case, since 100% of the media was calling it. those calls did well; now i'm hoping for this thing to settle down around here. i sold 130 july's against long 130s, and would love an expire a tad below 130- then for a dream earnings runup to 150 !!! out of the last of my 125 calls today.
haha.. one can dream.
update 4 my fans:
well, the position has gone slightly against me.However, I am still confident of turning a profit.....
doubling up my postion right now and going short at 131.90. This increases my exposure to 2X what I had normally planned, which of course increases my risk.
however,it increases my break-even point to 127.25 and I am positioned much better than I was just a few hours ago.I encourage everyone riding this trade to do the same and double up.
as for the options I have, they are pretty much worthless.You can write them off.Hopefully the core short position in AAPL will offset the minimal option trading losses.
once again, this is a multi week trade.Holding for sub-100.
blackguard
well, the position has gone slightly against me.However, I am still confident of turning a profit.....
doubling up my postion right now and going short at 131.90. This increases my exposure to 2X what I had normally planned, which of course increases my risk.
however,it increases my break-even point to 127.25 and I am positioned much better than I was just a few hours ago.I encourage everyone riding this trade to do the same and double up.
as for the options I have, they are pretty much worthless.You can write them off.Hopefully the core short position in AAPL will offset the minimal option trading losses.
once again, this is a multi week trade.Holding for sub-100.
blackguard
I've been short from 121, and was thinking about covering and admitting I make a mistake. What do you see that will make it come back down?
Yes, I was going along with sell the news, but I was also thinking since design a phone was new for apple, that there might be one or two glitches that popped up that would send the stock down. I haven't really heard anything bad yet.
your shorting a stock that most hedge funds have as a position in their portfolio.. which goes against a lot of things.
plus tech companies will outperform the broader market, since thats where the demand will be in terms of products.
yahoo is another under profiled company. I use yahoo just about everyday.
AAPL will hit 300 dollars in the coming months. The iphone is just one of many products, that are meant to change how we live our lives or facilitate it.
plus tech companies will outperform the broader market, since thats where the demand will be in terms of products.
yahoo is another under profiled company. I use yahoo just about everyday.
AAPL will hit 300 dollars in the coming months. The iphone is just one of many products, that are meant to change how we live our lives or facilitate it.
I guess the fun thing about trading is, we all have our different opinions about a trade and we all hope to make a buck or two.
I'm holding a very large long position at $122.00 and have pridicted that it will go to around $135.00 2 weeks after the introduction of the Iphone. Looks like I'm correct about that. Now I'm predicting that it will hit around $165.00 at the end of the month or the first week of August. As a matter of fact I expect AAPL to touch the high 130's between July 9 To July 13.
well, this trade is taking some time to develop: about 3 points away from breakeven right now.
very confident this one will crack and render profits.
the put options of course will expire worthless, but the core short position in AAPL will more than make up for those.
short and holding (if you dont already have a short position, now is the time to enter, and if you have a loss from the original entry point, you can double up here with a clear conscience).
blackguard
very confident this one will crack and render profits.
the put options of course will expire worthless, but the core short position in AAPL will more than make up for those.
short and holding (if you dont already have a short position, now is the time to enter, and if you have a loss from the original entry point, you can double up here with a clear conscience).
blackguard