AAPL contrarian play

I'd take the number of ebay iphone listings and divide it by the number of phones sold this weekend. You'll find that it is a very small number.
 
well, the strong market held it up today, otherwise it might have dropped 5 points.

nevertheless,up on the short position(right about the gap-down open).down a bit on the option trades(first time ever Ive posted a live option trade)

staying short for a while....

blackguard
 
One day when you are bored try a statistical analysis of risk/reward shorting stocks trading around their all-time highs vs. stocks trading around their all-time lows.
 
Quote from islands111:

well, the strong market held it up today, otherwise it might have dropped 5 points.

nevertheless,up on the short position(right about the gap-down open).down a bit on the option trades(first time ever Ive posted a live option trade)

staying short for a while....

blackguard
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just so you know, this isn't a contrarian play (selling the news here). every media outlet is saying sell the news.

Contrarian is buying today.

Its a screaming buy. Have plenty of upside, and when you see iphones on E channel, i think the hype will continue indefinitely.
 
I hear and understand the arguments against shorting/buying puts on a successful company. When I got to work, I was thinking of buying the July 125 puts this morning (monday July 2nd) as Apple was up about a $1.40 in premarket at one point. I expected it to open up about 3 or 4 points, but then it sold off in pre-market and managed to open lower and fall about 2 points once it opened. It managed to come back some, but was weak all day. The fact that it opened lower and had somewhat good news threw me off and I passed on getting long the puts, but I wonder if it was held up by mondays strong market. The question is how much of the iphone is already priced into the stock at the current level? Is the stock on its way to 115 or 135 in the next few days or weeks? All that one can do (who does not have inside info) is make what they believe to be an educated guess...and to be honest, upon further reflection I realize that I cannot even do that in this case.
 
Quote from Trader7793:

I hear and understand the arguments against shorting/buying puts on a successful company. When I got to work, I was thinking of buying the July 125 puts this morning (monday July 2nd) as Apple was up about a $1.40 in premarket at one point. I expected it to open up about 3 or 4 points, but then it sold off in pre-market and managed to open lower and fall about 2 points once it opened. It managed to come back some, but was weak all day. The fact that it opened lower and had somewhat good news threw me off and I passed on getting long the puts, but I wonder if it was held up by mondays strong market. The question is how much of the iphone is already priced into the stock at the current level? Is the stock on its way to 115 or 135 in the next few days or weeks? All that one can do (who does not have inside info) is make what they believe to be an educated guess...and to be honest, upon further reflection I realize that I cannot even do that in this case.
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My thoughts are personally that this Q may be a little lackluster in ipod revenues, but may be well offset by Macbook sales. I can't imagine ipod sales not being a disappointment due to all of the delayed purchasing that may have resulted from this iphone spectacle.

That said, I'm curious if the market would even sustain much of a selloff due to ipod disappointments, since there's so much more weight on iphone potential. And we won't know a thing about the real deal of sales and projections on iphone until 4 months from now.

With that said, 115 or even 110 is doable, but I guarantee as long as we don't enter a bear between now and 4 months from now, Apple will easily touch 150-160. Look at RIMM, BIDU, etc. Euphoric blowoff top buying. Apple going to 150-160 is doable.

And if they deliver, and manage to pull something off like RIMM did this Q, Apple could be near 200 by holidays. Doubt it. But this is a bull, and everyone is buying Macbooks and iphones. Saw a statistic that -total market- laptop penetration went up 2% (something like 12 -> 14%) in May or June for Apple. Thats serious, especially considering they could achieve 20%+ in the next few years if they execute properly.

Hell even I bought a Macbook - the entry level unit is actually priced well for what you get. And I'm cheap.
 
HOLY CRAP! Is anyone following AAPL this morning??? Up over $126 already this morning! I wish I had bought calls when islands made his big prediction!
 
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