AAPL contrarian play
- Thread starter islands111
- Start date
ok, lets rip the roof off this place:
short AAPL common @122.61 average 251PM EST
long July 115 puts @1.60
long Aug 115 puts @4
looking for 100% gain on both of these
for those of you opening up big positions: you don't have to do it all at once, as this is not a daytrade but a multi week thing.
throw out 5 or 6K, see what happens,let the price come back, then throw out some more.Try to be fully short definitely before the close of trading today, but preferably by 330PM.There's a good possibility of a gap down open on monday.
Now you see why I waited until now to open this trade. If I had shorted at the open, Id be swimming underwater right now. I like to get things rolling right off the bat, with limited or no drawdown.
anyway, good luck to all.
blackguard
short AAPL common @122.61 average 251PM EST
long July 115 puts @1.60
long Aug 115 puts @4
looking for 100% gain on both of these
for those of you opening up big positions: you don't have to do it all at once, as this is not a daytrade but a multi week thing.
throw out 5 or 6K, see what happens,let the price come back, then throw out some more.Try to be fully short definitely before the close of trading today, but preferably by 330PM.There's a good possibility of a gap down open on monday.
Now you see why I waited until now to open this trade. If I had shorted at the open, Id be swimming underwater right now. I like to get things rolling right off the bat, with limited or no drawdown.
anyway, good luck to all.
blackguard
I was seriously looking at getting long the Apple July 125 puts Friday afternoon, but was too scared that it might gap up on monday if they sold a million iphones over the weekend. I probably missed a good opportunity, but will look the get long the puts on monday morning.
There was a line of about 20 people camped out at the AT&T store early friday morning waiting to get an i-phone. I've never seen so much anticipation for a cell phone before. I think they will sell more phones than many people think. While we have seen a huge run up in the stock recently I still think it would be riskier to be on the short side than the long side.
What is your time frame on this trade? I am assuming 3-5 day, short term, or a flip?
I am not picking on you or anyone specifically in this thread. I was on some of the troll boards and it never ceases to amaze how much bashing, flack, and negativity Apple has gotten over the last few years be it the stock price, or ipods, or whatever.
The fact of the matter is, Apple is one of the best large cap performing stocks over the last 4+ years. You could have bought in at any single point and still made a ridiculous return on your money. I personally know someone who retired 10 years earlier than planned because he kept hoarding Apple stock over this time period.
In their most recent earnings report, they had gross profit margins of 35%, revenues of over $5 billion, and absolute staggering net profit of over $750 million dollars. These numbers are aboslutely insane.
This is a growth cycle that has allot more room to continue. IMHO their next earnings estimates are underscored and they are going to end up reporting the best ever earnings report in the history of the company. You are going to get the same kind of reaction that RIMM did the other day.
Good trading to everyone.
I am not picking on you or anyone specifically in this thread. I was on some of the troll boards and it never ceases to amaze how much bashing, flack, and negativity Apple has gotten over the last few years be it the stock price, or ipods, or whatever.
The fact of the matter is, Apple is one of the best large cap performing stocks over the last 4+ years. You could have bought in at any single point and still made a ridiculous return on your money. I personally know someone who retired 10 years earlier than planned because he kept hoarding Apple stock over this time period.
In their most recent earnings report, they had gross profit margins of 35%, revenues of over $5 billion, and absolute staggering net profit of over $750 million dollars. These numbers are aboslutely insane.
This is a growth cycle that has allot more room to continue. IMHO their next earnings estimates are underscored and they are going to end up reporting the best ever earnings report in the history of the company. You are going to get the same kind of reaction that RIMM did the other day.
Good trading to everyone.
My time frame on the July 125 puts would be like 2 days or so. I must admit that the short side seems pretty risky and that is why I decided to wait until monday morning to see what happened over the weekend, just in case some rumor comes out that they sold over a million phones over the weekend.
When I made some calls earlier today all of the AT&T stores near my house were sold out of the iphone, of course, but they are taking orders and will ship phones to a persons office or home. I think that the number of orders taken for shipping will be the most crucial factor. If another million or so, iphones were paid for and will be shipped in 3 to 5 days to customers...monday might be a decent up day for the stock.
I must admit that I have not been a longtime follower of Apple stock and cannot accurately determine if a sale of 2 million iphones over the weekend is priced into the stock already. It seems to have run up an awful lot in the last few months though, but this could be just the beginning. Knowing my luck, the moment that I buy puts on it, that will be the bottom for the next 3 months and it will run to 135 prior to earnings.
I must admit that I have not been a longtime follower of Apple stock and cannot accurately determine if a sale of 2 million iphones over the weekend is priced into the stock already. It seems to have run up an awful lot in the last few months though, but this could be just the beginning. Knowing my luck, the moment that I buy puts on it, that will be the bottom for the next 3 months and it will run to 135 prior to earnings.
How many of these iphones are actually being purchased for personal use and not reselling on ebay?
So far the majority of people I have heard of buying iphones are resellers, scalpers, and gadget bloggers.
I agree that the iphone is mostly hype. It is essentially a regular ipod but with phone capabilities. Reading anything on a 3" screen is not fun.
On ebay, the average "buy it now" price that I see is $1,000 or above, but the phones are selling for less than $50 premium over retail.
example:
NEW APPLE IPHONE 8GB SEALED
Winning bid: US $647.00
Ended: Jun-30-07 19:30:00 PDT
Shipping costs: US $19.95
Standard Flat Rate Shipping Service
History: 24 bids
The 8Gb model costs $599 retail. The reseller must have bought this phone at $599 + tax, so around $630.
So far the majority of people I have heard of buying iphones are resellers, scalpers, and gadget bloggers.
I agree that the iphone is mostly hype. It is essentially a regular ipod but with phone capabilities. Reading anything on a 3" screen is not fun.
On ebay, the average "buy it now" price that I see is $1,000 or above, but the phones are selling for less than $50 premium over retail.
example:
NEW APPLE IPHONE 8GB SEALED
Winning bid: US $647.00
Ended: Jun-30-07 19:30:00 PDT
Shipping costs: US $19.95
Standard Flat Rate Shipping Service
History: 24 bids
The 8Gb model costs $599 retail. The reseller must have bought this phone at $599 + tax, so around $630.
