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AAPL - Calls or Puts or Straddles?
- Thread starter skaranam
- Start date
Put or straddles. Be awares volatility is off the charts
Quote from skaranam:
What are you buying ahead of the results?
well lets figure this out...
bull case for aapl (obvious)
1) *real* iphone results don't come this Q. they come next. we won't really get a great idea of sales from this earnings. that lack of information could support the stock (unknowns are often better... that way there is no 'sell the news')
2) they *will* guide higher for next Q if you consider macbook/etc sales for back to school season is included for it.
3) there is a possibility we could find out confirmation of the at&t kickback/etc (unless its already released. i haven't researched this yet) more specifically. this will give analysts fuel to show that every million iphones is $500mil in *earnings* to the bottom line. definite price support.
bear case:
1) not much iphone hype momentum left.
2) no earnings momentum left.
3) we're already up 40% since last earnings.
with that considered, I'm a buyer of stock, not volatility, since it will inevitably drop. this dip should be a good buying opp. bought a nibble at 137.50. downside support at 120? upside at 150-160 upon kickback confirmation from at&t. good 1:1 risk reward i think.
i think selling 120 or 115 puts naked here may also be a good trade.
but with this also considered, i argued the overvaluation of amzn holding shorts into that earnings. (covered at 78) look how well I did. So maybe doing the opposite of what makes sense may work best.
Quote from scriabinop23:
well lets figure this out...
bull case for aapl (obvious)
1) *real* iphone results don't come this Q. they come next. we won't really get a great idea of sales from this earnings. that lack of information could support the stock (unknowns are often better... that way there is no 'sell the news')
2) they *will* guide higher for next Q if you consider macbook/etc sales for back to school season is included for it.
3) there is a possibility we could find out confirmation of the at&t kickback/etc (unless its already released. i haven't researched this yet) more specifically. this will give analysts fuel to show that every million iphones is $500mil in *earnings* to the bottom line. definite price support.
bear case:
1) not much iphone hype momentum left.
2) no earnings momentum left.
3) we're already up 40% since last earnings.
with that considered, I'm a buyer of stock, not volatility, since it will inevitably drop. this dip should be a good buying opp. bought a nibble at 137.50. downside support at 120? upside at 150-160 upon kickback confirmation from at&t. good 1:1 risk reward i think.
i think selling 120 or 115 puts naked here may also be a good trade.
but with this also considered, i argued the overvaluation of amzn holding shorts into that earnings. (covered at 78) look how well I did. So maybe doing the opposite of what makes sense may work best.
Ouch
I really hope you didn't buy puts
oh my bad