AAPL: Buying the Dips!
- Thread starter cactiman
- Start date
The key is to know most people who own over 5% of the float (public information) and have meetings with them every once in awhile.
say, over coffee...."Coffee (AAPL) prices are too high at $7 (700 AAPL), they should be at $6 (600) in a few months."
done.
and some joker says "What about TA?"
they all laugh
say, over coffee...."Coffee (AAPL) prices are too high at $7 (700 AAPL), they should be at $6 (600) in a few months."
done.
and some joker says "What about TA?"
they all laugh
Quote from cactiman:
I thought it was called Trend Trading.
The Long Term Trend is up, so the odds favor it continuing to go up.
Buying pullbacks in uptrends is not a new thing. What's the big deal?
I thought it was standard procedure.
I also think noting an uptrend's Higher Highs and Higher Lows, and measuring the % moves of the pullbacks and rallies is a valid form of analysis. Again, nothing new.
My whole point with this thread was to show how buying dips "feels bad" when you're doing it, but it has worked for the last 3 years shown on the chart.
And IF you had kept your "Faith in the Trend", put up with all those fears and doubts during the pullbacks, and bought in near all those higher lows, you'd have done quite well.
Sure, but this only works temporarily. 8 years of a bull market has convinced everyone it will work forever. What criterion would you use to stop doing this? The first lower high?
Buy the dips may work out well in goog as they control both mobile wetware and hardware. Since new rimm os seamlessly interfaces with android , this platform will end up dominating smart phones which helps Goog monetize mobile. Goog also now owns hardware and will do ok if they can clean out the old unimaginative mot nerds and bring in a few aapl nerds who know design is as important as the engineering . The old Mot is full of asshat types who feel they need to design a new programming language to power every ugly phone with buttons in the wrong place. For aapl, the fact the new ceo handed out dividends says aapl is now run by "think inside the box" corporate suits. I think its in the beginning of a sustained downtrend.
8 years is quite a long "temporarily", but every move is only for as long as it lasts, of course.
I don't have a chart for it, but AAPL didn't do well during the 2008-2009 Bear Market either, when it fell from 200 down to 78 in 12 months.
I did well with AAPL in 2007, was out of the Market for a while (too busy losing my house and 1/2 of my possessions!), and have done OK during AAPL's latest move since last year.
Now we have a 4 week pullback, not on particularly high volume mind you, and "everyone" is calling for AAPL's demise once again.
We'll probably find out this week, with the 2 announcements on the 23rd and 25th, if AAPL can pull another rabbit out of its hat.
As I stated earlier in this thread, Trend Trading for me is based on 2 assumptions:
1. The Uptrend is still in place until a Higher Low is taken out during a retracement.
2. All the % moves (i.e. Rallies to Higher Highs and Pullbacks to Higher Lows) in a stock's Uptrend (over the last 3 years on its weekly chart) will continue in a similar fashion.
So far #2 is still in place.
As to #1: I'll believe AAPL's Uptrend (since March 2009) is over if it doesn't make a new high this year after these announcements, and then falls below 550.
This might happen very soon in fact, if:
1. "Everyone" is right about this pullback and AAPL's move is finally exhausted.
2. The S&P has reached another top (near 1500) in its latest Cyclical Bull Market, within its 17 year Secular Bear Market, and is ready to begin another Cyclical Bear Market back down to 750 (if that theory is correct, which is has been so far - a whole 'nother topic!).
Orrrrr, AAPL might make 800, if this latest pullback is just part of the established pattern since March 2009.
Mr. Market will give us his decision soon enough.
P.S.
Of course the other way to trade AAPL is via "Breakouts to New Highs", rather than "Buying Dips".
But Options prices are much better after pullbacks (i.e. Puts are more expensive for better Credits on Bull Put Spreads), which is why I've been doing it this way as of late.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6934&highlight=bells+and+whistles#post3266934 thats a market profile,its the bar chart turned on its side with the most often traded prices being the widest,it's explained on the posted linkQuote from cactiman:
I don't understand your charts.
Those blue shapes to the right - are those price predictions into the future?
