AAPL: Buying the Dips!

Quote from tradingjournals:

If the sales are up 17.4%, how would that lead to a more-than-18% rise needed to even out the 18% loss?
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There's lots of Bull/Bear debate as to why AAPL fell for 8 straight weeks after it hit 700+.
I think it was because Hedge Funds sold to lock in gains at 2012 tax rates, and/or to rebalance their AAPL positions because they had risen above their allowable % to be held in any one stock.
I don't think the stock fell for any fundamental reasons.

So from that point of view AAPL doesn't belong where it is, and should go back up to 700 as the those Hedge Funds buy back in at lower prices, Value and Dividend Growth Funds start buying because AAPL now meets their specifications, and all the Shorts get squeezed and cover as their stop-losses are hit.

I believe that process began when AAPL hit 505.75, and will be further helped along when The Street starts speculating about AAPL's Holiday Sales and 1st quarter Earnings.
:)
 

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Quote from cactiman:

There's lots of Bull/Bear debate as to why AAPL fell for 8 straight weeks after it hit 700+.
I think it was because Hedge Funds sold to lock in gains at 2012 tax rates, and/or to rebalance their AAPL positions because they had risen above their allowable % to be held in any one stock.
I don't think the stock fell for any fundamental reasons.

So from that point of view AAPL doesn't belong where it is, and should go back up to 700 as the those Hedge Funds buy back in at lower prices, Value and Dividend Growth Funds start buying because AAPL now meets their specifications, and all the Shorts get squeezed and cover as their stop-losses are hit.

I believe that process began when AAPL hit 505.75, and will be further helped along when The Street starts speculating about AAPL's Holiday Sales and 1st quarter Earnings.
:)
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I think that's a reasonable analysis. I don't know about the ultimate price target, it could be 700, or less, or beyond, nobody really knows for sure. Gene Munster on CNBC (who seems to be an eternal aapl bull) restated his price target in the 800's.

However I'd say from a technical standpoint at least a 50% retracement of the move down has high odds, near the 200day moving average around 600/share.
 
Quote from ScalperJoe:

I think that's a reasonable analysis. I don't know about the ultimate price target, it could be 700, or less, or beyond, nobody really knows for sure. Gene Munster on CNBC (who seems to be an eternal aapl bull) restated his price target in the 800's.

However I'd say from a technical standpoint at least a 50% retracement of the move down has high odds, near the 200day moving average around 600/share.
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Assuming the Long Term Uptrend continues and AAPL makes a New High above 700, a pullback to a new Higher Low around 600 makes perfect sense on the chart, yes.
2 steps forward, 1 step back.
:cool:
 
I am kind of leaning toward 600~605 50EMA follow through. 505.75 is a kind of temp bottom.

then choppy between 600~500 a while, like three month window, maybe three times go through 50EMA (from under), then plummet through 500 to 200ish, even 100ish, wait there when it pops above 50 Days EMA, sell.




Quote from ScalperJoe:


However I'd say from a technical standpoint at least a 50% retracement of the move down has high odds, near the 200day moving average around 600/share.
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Quote from cactiman:

Assuming the Long Term Uptrend continues and AAPL makes a New High above 700, a pullback to a new Higher Low around 600 makes perfect sense on the chart, yes.
2 steps forward, 1 step back.
:cool:
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That's a very big assumption.
 
Quote from Daring:

That's a very big assumption.
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Yes, and the other question is how long will it take?

Looking back at AAPL's last 2 big rallies on the attached chart:
From 517.58 to 701.86 (+35.60%) took from 5/18/12 to 9/21/12.
From 360.12 to 638.33 (+77.26%) took from 11/21/11 to 4/10/12.

From 505.75, a 35.60% rally would bring AAPL up to 685.80, and a 77.26% rally would bring it up to 896.49!

Of course there's more overhead supply to rise through this time, and macroeconomic conditions are always changing.
But AAPL is certainly capable of rallying 38.41% from 505.75, and making 700 by April, which is what I'm betting on.

Will just have to wait and see what Mr. Market decides to do.
:)
 

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Quote from apple:

So many ppl expect AAPL to go back to $600 or $700, then most likely it won't go there.
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Sometimes the bigger volume is not created by manipulators but by retail investors, when they all agree, they can't be stopped.

Fading the majority does not always work, sometimes it's suicidal, which is why you are better off trading price than logic.
 
it was a big day for apple and it helped pull up the market today and last week was a bounce it will be interesting to see how this week goes.

Quote from cactiman:

Yes, and the other question is how long will it take?

Looking back at AAPL's last 2 big rallies on the attached chart:
From 517.58 to 701.86 (+35.60%) took from 5/18/12 to 9/21/12.
From 360.12 to 638.33 (+77.26%) took from 11/21/11 to 4/10/12.

From 505.75, a 35.60% rally would bring AAPL up to 685.80, and a 77.26% rally would bring it up to 896.49!

Of course there's more overhead supply to rise through this time, and macroeconomic conditions are always changing.
But AAPL is certainly capable of rallying 38.41% from 505.75, and making 700 by April, which is what I'm betting on.

Will just have to wait and see what Mr. Market decides to do.
:)
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