AAPL: Buying the Dips!
- Thread starter cactiman
- Start date
it is. if you ignore the divergence. some people just buy on the 50days EMA , and use several months high 648 as support.
of course technical analysis is just bullshit. stand in different angle, you get opposite results. Christmas is coming, people may see apple products as a good gift, who knows, there is a I'stuff buy binge. or AAPl may win another big milestone copyright lawsuit.
That is why trading is so challenging. always be prepared to be wrong, and accept it. I am trading under my risk tolerance. if I am wrong, still feel bad,but not bad enough to hurt me deeply.
just as cross the street, look at both side. but you can not look at both side at the same time, that is why accident do does happen.
we human being have a limited capility to esitimate the maginitute of event results. either severly exagerated or highly underesitimated. that is why you see lofty price, or some market severly depressed.
logic? just a trap.
of course technical analysis is just bullshit. stand in different angle, you get opposite results. Christmas is coming, people may see apple products as a good gift, who knows, there is a I'stuff buy binge. or AAPl may win another big milestone copyright lawsuit.
That is why trading is so challenging. always be prepared to be wrong, and accept it. I am trading under my risk tolerance. if I am wrong, still feel bad,but not bad enough to hurt me deeply.
just as cross the street, look at both side. but you can not look at both side at the same time, that is why accident do does happen.
we human being have a limited capility to esitimate the maginitute of event results. either severly exagerated or highly underesitimated. that is why you see lofty price, or some market severly depressed.
logic? just a trap.
Quote from cactiman:
This is a good example of different chart interpretations due to different time frames.
My weekly chart and multi-month trading approach has no problem with a 6 week pullback at this point.
AAPL could fall to 600 even, and I'd interpret the long term uptrend as still being in place.
Meanwhile, shorter term trades via daily charts and a different interpretation enable you to make some good money with Puts during the fall from 705.
And day traders with 5 minute charts are probably making money on the long and short side every couple of hours...
recently I have a bad trade of STX (sveral weeks ago).
STX is in nice trend up, then pullback to 50days EMA, in an uptrend, it should bounce (mm, should, market should? or I should?), I bought some calls of 31.5. it did not go there that week, the next week it did. that trade is against my rule, I do not buy pullback, only buy strong gush up or gush down.
just as in trading bad habit list thread, this trade seems change my rules. I am fading my trading system. based on stx experience, stx stuck there on the 50days EMA, AAPL may most likely too. so this directional bet is a sucker's play, totally agaist my rule. use MACD divergence topping patten volume pattern as selectively (all favors my view, while ignore other possibles, such as x'ams Iphone/ipad/ipad buy binge, patent war winning, index gush up after president election....)
that is human mind, twisted.
STX is in nice trend up, then pullback to 50days EMA, in an uptrend, it should bounce (mm, should, market should? or I should?), I bought some calls of 31.5. it did not go there that week, the next week it did. that trade is against my rule, I do not buy pullback, only buy strong gush up or gush down.
just as in trading bad habit list thread, this trade seems change my rules. I am fading my trading system. based on stx experience, stx stuck there on the 50days EMA, AAPL may most likely too. so this directional bet is a sucker's play, totally agaist my rule. use MACD divergence topping patten volume pattern as selectively (all favors my view, while ignore other possibles, such as x'ams Iphone/ipad/ipad buy binge, patent war winning, index gush up after president election....)
that is human mind, twisted.
Days of lofty Appl valuations are over. The decision to pay dividends shows the statist mentality of the new management, the new ceo is saying we're fat and rich and can afford to give away profits. This type of group think leads to statism and charts like HPQ. Steve Jobs kept everyone hungry by not taking a salary and beating into everyone around him that Aapl could go under any month. Why is the lean and be mean mentality vital? Because Aapl is rapidly losing mobile OS market share to goog and Android. I made a sweet return buying otm 660 puts. Chart looks ripe for a bear run.
Interesting ideas. Cool. I love this stuff!
All the Jack Schwager "Market Wizzard" books prove how lots of different approaches to trading can all be successful.
That's the beauty of it, and "what makes a Market"!
But he and all the other traders say the most important thing, after you come up with your own trading style, is to be consistent with it.
If it's based on patterns and principles which have worked in the past, then the odds are in your favor (not a guarantee) they will work again.
